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  1. #3061

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    For comparison the same data for the 10 most affected US states. Unfortunately not possible to compare with the worst affected areas in Spain or Italy (outbreaks elsewhere in Europe not as regionally concentrated)

    New Jersey 1751
    New York 1664
    Connecticut 1220
    Massachusetts 1204
    Rhode Island 921
    Washington DC 805
    Louisiana 728
    Michigan 629
    Illinois 580
    Maryland 546

    Clearly the list is still dominated by the first wave states. The current hot spot states are still far down the list (Florida 191, Arizona 286, Texas 109). Hawaii remains by far the safest place to be in USA.
    Roger forever

  2. #3062

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Here is the current situation in Europe this time concentrating on new infections. Clearly not as dire as in USA, but also getting worse in many countries.

    Roger forever

  3. #3063

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    The ten US states with most new infections yesterday (not adjusted for population!)

    Florida 11,433
    Texas 10,063
    California 8,781
    Georgia 4,484
    Arizona 4,221
    Louisiana 2,642
    Tennessee 1,955
    North Carolina 1,830
    South Carolina 1,728
    Ohio 1,553
    Roger forever

  4. #3064

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    There have been some questions raised about the site I usually use my updates on ( Their origins are mysterious and some say they tend to take the highest number available. On the other hand and purely anecdotally numbers given for Switzerland and Latvia correspond to those I've read from official sources.

    Just a warning not to take the above numbers as gospel.
    Roger forever

  5. #3065

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by suliso View Post
    What went wrong? Briefly Colombia was a positive example in South America.
    Colombia took the outbreak seriously. You know, as an example, that I was stuck in the USA for way longer than I expected because of the nation-wide shutdown.
    But, and this is my guess (we have discussed it too), because everybody was locked down, there was no immunity build-up in the population. So the moment they opened a little bit, cases started spiking again.
    Most people are taking it seriously. I went to get my hair cut. I had to give all my data (for possible contact tracing), kept my mask on all the time, the chair was cleaned/disinfected before I sat down, there was a limited number of people there (actually, only two) and the apron used was a disposable one. Almost all shops are following guidelines and, as opposed to the USA, NO MASK, NO ENTRY. That simple.
    I guess it is the Catch-22 aspect of the virus. You lock down? No immunity build up. And since the virus is still "out there", the only thing you did was postpone catching it.
    Last edited by ponchi101; Yesterday at 10:47 AM.
    Face it. It's the apocalypse.

  6. #3066

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Solid argument, but why does it not seem to happen in Germany or France? At least nowhere near to this extent.
    Roger forever

  7. #3067

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    This needs to be done more and more.
    “No matter how cynical I get, I just can't keep up.” – Lily Tomlin.

  8. #3068

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Cuyahoga County was the first "epicenter" of the disease in Ohio. For the first several weeks, they led by a margin in the numbers of cases and deaths. Franklin County (Columbus) has been by far the worst county now for many weeks.

    You can look at the Cuyahoga County curve and see that it went up rather rapidly for a bit right at the beginning. For me, this curve is yet another example of a place where the number of cases plateaued but never went down. I hate to say "I told you so" too often during this pandemic, but it is true pretty often. I was telling anyone who would listen that a plateau is better than continuing upward, but a plateau does not mean that you can simply re-open everything and all will go well. The concept of widespread re-opening with merely a plateau has not been touted as adequate with past pandemics (even of long ago). This country definitely didn't learn from history.

    When we look at what the great success stories did (New Zealand, South Korea, and Latvia are examples we have discussed), they remained very vigilant and the people behaved once they started to relax restrictions. The USA, even in Ohio that did far better than most, was far too willing to pack the bars, the gyms, the restaurants, and the beaches as soon as the plateaus occurred.

    I see no sane rationale for re-opening any schools to in-person classes when the curve looks like that for Cuyahoga County. Most but not all counties in Ohio have similar curves, though with smaller numbers in the more rural counties. I completely understand the need to get kids back in school. But we need curves that are seriously going down for that to be safe.


  9. #3069

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    After the fastest recession in U.S. history, the economic recovery may be fizzling

    David J. Lynch
    July 11, 2020 at 4:58 p.m. EDT

    United Airlines announced plans to lay off more than one-third of its 95,000 workers. Brooks Brothers, which first opened for business in 1818, filed for bankruptcy. And Bed Bath and Beyond said it will close 200 stores.

    Welcome to the recovery.

    If there were still hopes of a “V-shaped” comeback from the novel coronavirus shutdown, this past week should have put an end to them. The pandemic shock, which economists once assumed would be only a temporary business interruption, appears instead to be settling into a traditional, self-perpetuating recession.

    When states and cities began closing most businesses in March, the idea was to smother the virus and buy time for the medical system to adapt. Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and a senior White House adviser, spoke of hopes “that by July the country’s really rocking again.”

    But without a uniform federal strategy, many governors rushed to reopen their economies before bringing the virus under control. Now states such as Florida, California, Texas and Arizona are setting daily records for coronavirus cases and more than 70 percent of the country has either paused or reversed reopening plans, according to Goldman Sachs.

    After two surprisingly strong months, the economy could begin shedding jobs again this month and in August, Morgan Stanley warned Friday. Many small businesses that received forgivable government loans have exhausted their funds while some larger companies are starting to thin their payrolls in preparation for a longer-than-expected downturn.

    Fresh labor market weakness would represent a profound disappointment for millions of American workers and President Trump, who is eager to highlight economic progress with only a few months remaining before the November election.

    “ ‘Stalling’ is the word I’m using,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Ameritrade. “But the risk there is that the numbers start turning negative again.”

    Several regional Federal Reserve officials last week expressed concerns about the recovery petering out. Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, warned that economic activity “is starting to level off.” Thomas Barkin, who heads the Richmond Fed, cited “air pockets” in new business orders.

    At the White House on Friday, however, the president insisted that his plans were on track.

    “I created the greatest economy we’ve ever had. And now we’re creating it again,” he said before leaving for Florida.

    A day earlier, he told a group of Hispanic leaders he had launched “the fastest economic comeback in history.”

    The economy did regain a total of 7.5 million jobs in May and June, faster than many economists anticipated. But that was just one-third of the number lost to the pandemic.

    In a worrisome sign, more than two months after states like Georgia lifted their shelter-in-place orders, layoffs are spreading beyond companies that provide services requiring direct human contact. As disruption from the pandemic lingers, this could mean that the job loss is starting to feed on itself in a classic recessionary spiral, economists said.

    Harley-Davidson last week said it was eliminating 700 jobs as part of a restructuring plan it described as unrelated to fallout from the pandemic. In April, the company said: “The crisis has provided an opportunity to reevaluate every aspect of our business and strategic plan. We have determined that we need to make significant changes to the company."

    Indeed, the pandemic, which marked an abrupt end to a nearly 11-year expansion, is prompting companies to rethink their operations and to trim fat that accumulated while the economy was growing. Wells Fargo, the nation’s fourth-largest bank, is drawing up plans to cut “tens of thousands” of jobs later this year, according to a Bloomberg News report.

    “While the timing seems to coincide with the stalling of the economic reopening process in over 30 states, there may well be something more strategic in play — that is, pressure on a growing segment of corporate America to ‘right size’ for what increasingly looks like a longer road back to full economic recovery,” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, via email.

    The unemployment rate never reached the Depression-caliber level of 20 percent that many economists had feared in March, topping out so far at 14.7 percent. But layoffs that initially were described as a temporary response to a health crisis are hardening into something more permanent, leaving millions of workers scrambling to regain their footing in a changed economy.

    The labor market remains a ruin. First-time claims for unemployment benefits have exceeded the previously unheard of figure of 1 million for 16 consecutive weeks.

    Including a new program for freelancers and gig economy workers affected by the pandemic, weekly claims are rising. Almost 33 million Americans now are collecting some form of unemployment benefits, according to Morgan Stanley.

    Even allowing for some double-counting in the figures, that means nearly 20 percent of those who were working in February are now jobless, according to economist Julia Coronado, president of Macropolicy Perspectives.

    It is no longer a question of returning to the pre-pandemic environment that existed as recently as four months ago, economists said. Under the remorseless influence of the pandemic, the U.S. economy is being reshaped. There will be fewer jobs in airlines, hotels, restaurants and traditional retail and more in e-commerce and technology industries.

    Shifting workers from fading industries to the handful that are experiencing rising sales will not happen quickly. During the Great Recession, which began in December 2007, it took nearly 10 years for the unemployment rate to fall back to its 4.4 percent low.

    For Levi Strauss, booming online sales were not enough to offset the impact of the closure of most of its retail outlets in March and April. The company said last week it would lay off 700 workers, aiming to trim quarterly expenses by $100 million.

    “Businesses have to be conservative and cautious and resize their business for the worst-case scenario of an economy that doesn’t bounce back,” said Coronado. “We’re now seeing the normal recession dynamics we were trying to avoid.”

    As the virus has raged longer than first expected, some companies are concluding that they just don’t need as many workers as they did in February, said Heidi Shierholz, former chief economist at the Labor Department.

    “These are more of a normal recession layoff. It definitely has a more permanent feel to it,” said Shierholz, now with the Economic Policy Institute.

    Employment and spending data suggest the recovery sagged after June 22. The number of people telling government researchers they were not working rose in each of the past two weeks, climbing by more than 1.4 million, according to an experimental Census Bureau survey of American households.

    Likewise, consumers appear to have grown more cautious over the same period, according to Jesse Edgerton, an economist with JPMorgan Chase. Citing data from 30 million credit and debit card files, he noted “a modest pullback” in spending across all states, not just those where the virus had flared anew.

    “Spending has begun to flatten out at a somewhat lower level than the peak seen on June 22,” Edgerton wrote in a note to clients.

    Millions of additional layoffs could come soon from cash-strapped state and local governments, unless Congress provides additional relief, and small businesses that have exhausted their borrowing under the Paycheck Protection Program. In a survey of its members, the National Federation of Independent Business said more than half of respondents had used up their loans and 22 percent planned to lay off workers as a result.

    “As owners finish using their loan, more are finding that economic conditions are unable to support current staffing levels which were previously supported by the PPP loan,” the industry group said.

    None of this means that the economy is destined to repeat its sickening March plunge. But many economists expect what Rubeela Farooqi of High-Frequency Economics calls a “stop-and-go recovery” that will advance or retreat depending upon public health.

    Nowhere is that clearer than in doubts about whether schools will operate normally this fall. The president insists the nation has no choice but to resume instruction for millions of students, both for their benefit and to enable parents to return to their jobs. But with coronavirus cases soaring just weeks before the first bells are scheduled to ring, it is not clear whether that will be practical.

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday that he was “highly optimistic” about a coronavirus vaccine by the end of the year. But the economy can’t wait for a cure. Individual and government efforts to blunt the pandemic’s spread must intensify to prevent a deeper or extended downturn, economists said.

    “I don’t think any of us think we’ll get the economy back to 100 percent before there’s a medical answer,” said James Glassman, JPMorgan Chase’s head economist for commercial banking. “The longer it goes on, the more damage it does."
    “No matter how cynical I get, I just can't keep up.” – Lily Tomlin.

  10. #3070

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Businesses can adapt.

    There's a restaurant in NYC, Manhattan, called "Rao's" pronounced "Ray's". To say seating is limited is putting it mildly. The restaurant is in the heart of what is now Spanish Harlem but used to be an uptown Little Italy. I'm joking but you couldn't get a reservation there anytime in the near futre. It's small. If you watch "L&O" original with Ohrbach and Jesse L. Martin you can see the place.

    They've decided to start allowing people to pick up their dinners. You pre order and they text you when your meal is ready and you can come and pick it up.

    If Rao's can do this, is doing this, I bet people like David Chang and Eric Ripert are watching to see how it works.
    “No matter how cynical I get, I just can't keep up.” – Lily Tomlin.

  11. #3071

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Yes, they can certainly adapt but will this or most other restaurants make enough money to survive? People don't spend as much on take away than they do in person.
    Roger forever

  12. #3072

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    The question about schools in US will be a tough one. Yes, it's not safe to open but on the other hand what could working parents do? Great privilege for single income families and those rich enough to hire a nanny.
    Roger forever

  13. #3073

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Of course, a country with decent leadership would have been looking at ways to help families in this situation, with finances, with child care, etc. Yet one more abject failure on the part of our government. The schools are all but being forced to open at the most dangerous time yet in the pandemic. This is endangering everyone. Yet those at the top seem totally unconcerned about that.

    I am so beyond-fed-up with this country right now. I almost feel like I'm having trouble being rational at moments. But still, opening the schools with soaring numbers of cases and full hospitals seems blatantly inappropriate and irresponsible.

    By the way, Wright State has a fairly large population of international students. There is a fair amount of panic right now about Trump's new thing about deporting international students who are only taking on-line classes. I am sure campuses all over are going to have huge problems if this goes forward. I am aware that legal action in this regard has been started by Harvard and MIT. We'll see what happens.


  14. #3074

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Talking about international students will there be any new ones in the upcoming school year? I imagine not considering the current administration, pandemic and visa/travel restrictions. Lots of graduate programs in US are relying heavily on Asian students and postdocs.
    Roger forever

  15. #3075

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Good question. I am sure there were many planning to come to start this autumn. I have not heard whether they are being prevented from coming. I'll keep my ear to the ground and see what happens. I am in almost daily contact with the chairman of the Department of Music. He hears such things, so I'll ask. Our top piano faculty person is a man from Macau. He has been in the USA for decades, but he still gets an annual flow of piano students coming from Macau, especially, and sometimes from Hong Kong or the rest of China. The engineering school seems (to me) to be mostly international students.

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