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  1. #4171

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by suliso View Post

    European situation in map



    Roger forever

  2. #4172

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by suliso View Post
    The ten worst and the ten least affected US States at the moment. Daily new cases per 100k inhabitants (moving 7 day average).

    North Dakota 201.0
    South Dakota 130.5
    Wyoming 112.9
    Wisconsin 93.0
    Iowa 89.9
    Montana 80.6
    Nebraska 80.5
    Illinois 71.2
    Utah 64.9
    Kansas 61.2
    ----
    Washington 14.8
    Oregon 14.3
    Louisiana 13.7
    Washington DC 13.1
    California 12.7
    New York 12.2
    New Hampshire 11.9
    Maine 11.0
    Hawaii 6.9
    Vermont 3.9

    You all have probably hardly noticed due to political events, but covid-19 pandemic is starting to accelerate exponentially in US. Currently 29 states are in the red zone (>25) and only two in the yellow (<10). Also yesterday 120,000 new cases and >1,000 dead.
    North Dakota 184.0
    Wisconsin 139.1
    South Dakota 129.7
    Iowa 119.9
    Nebraska 118.6
    Montana 115.7
    Wyoming 115.1
    New Mexico 110.8
    Utah 106.9
    Minnesota 100.0
    ----
    Oregon 25.9
    Washington 25.7
    New York 25.2
    Virginia 24.9
    Georgia 23.6
    Washington DC 23.2
    South Carolina 19.8
    Vermont 16.2
    Maine 15.1
    Hawaii 5.8

    No prizes given for the conclusion that the situation in US is rapidly getting worse in virtually every state (except Hawaii). Yet again half a dozen states would be the worst in the World if they were countries. It does seem though that the increase is slowing a bit so perhaps the peak of the third wave will be reached in 2-3 weeks.

    Also added a color map. Only one yellow and handful of orange states left (the border for red is >25).

    23rdNov.JPG
    Roger forever

  3. #4173

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by suliso View Post
    Here is a weekly update to the global list now with numbers directly comparable with those of US states (daily infections per 100k inhabitants as a moving 7 day average)

    Luxembourg 106.6
    Czechia 106.5
    Switzerland 94.8
    France 71.8
    Slovenia 69.7
    Armenia 69.6
    Montenegro 66.7
    Austria 58.9
    Poland 57.7
    Georgia 57.0
    ----
    Belgium 56.6
    Italy 50.8
    UK 33.0
    US 30.3
    Spain 28.8
    Sweden 24.6
    Argentina 23.1
    Germany 21.1
    Greece 20.6
    Colombia 18.2
    Latvia 13.6
    Ireland 10.1
    Canada 8.6 (also inching up)
    Chile 7.3
    Brazil 6.4
    Israel 6.3
    Mexico 4.0
    Finland 3.8 (best in Europe currently)
    India 3.0 (surprisingly good)
    Turkey 2.7
    Uruguay 1.1 (amazing performance compared to Argentina)
    Georgia 89.7
    Luxembourg 87.4
    Serbia 73.6
    Montenegro 71.0
    Slovenia 69.8
    Austria 67.7
    Croatia 64.6
    Portugal 62.6
    Lithuania 59.6 (became bad very quickly...)
    Poland 57.5
    ----
    Italy 55.8
    USA 51.0
    Switzerland 47.9
    Czechia 43.4 (huge drop compared to two weeks ago)
    France 37.4 (also down)
    Sweden 33.0
    UK 31.4
    Estonia 24.0
    Belgium 23.6 (also greatly down, but mortality still high as it's a lagging indicator)
    Germany 21.8 (steady)
    Spain 19.7
    Argentina 19.4
    Latvia 19.0
    Colombia 13.9
    Brazil 13.7
    Canada 12.8
    Ireland 7.6 (seems like under control after a long lockdown)
    Chile 7.0
    Finland 5.5
    Iceland 3.5 (now best in Europe)
    India 3.1
    Japan 1.6 (low level, but up significantly)

    The situation seems rather similar than 2 weeks ago. The infections seem to have reached the peak in most, but not all major European countries. S. America not a big concern right now.
    Roger forever

  4. #4174

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by suliso View Post
    And the new map...

    Looks better visually, but actually it's still worse - color definitions have been changed!

    Roger forever

  5. #4175

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    I can only report from Colombia: everybody is wearing masks, every shop/market has a gel dispenser at the door (and the guard will spray you or remind you to), every restaurant that is open has the tables in the center of groups voided.
    Shopping malls are open, people are there, everybody is keeping distance. It is the sole thing we are doing.
    Face it. It's the apocalypse.

  6. #4176

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by ponchi101 View Post
    I can only report from Colombia: everybody is wearing masks, every shop/market has a gel dispenser at the door (and the guard will spray you or remind you to), every restaurant that is open has the tables in the center of groups voided.
    Shopping malls are open, people are there, everybody is keeping distance. It is the sole thing we are doing.
    Right, but didn't you also do that 5 months ago? Or just started to be this careful more recently?

    P.S. I'm fairly convinced gel dispensers make no difference at all. It's all about aerosols and hence masks and just not being close together.
    Roger forever

  7. #4177
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    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Ponchi, is it Colombia or Venezuela where there are restrictions on the days you are allowed to shop based on your ID? I have friends in both, but I cannot remember which one told me about it. Or maybe that's true in both? My memory really stinks.
    Tiz the Dude! Now a winner after his second race!

  8. #4178

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by ponchi101 View Post
    I can only report from Colombia: everybody is wearing masks, every shop/market has a gel dispenser at the door (and the guard will spray you or remind you to), every restaurant that is open has the tables in the center of groups voided.
    Shopping malls are open, people are there, everybody is keeping distance. It is the sole thing we are doing.
    I really like the idea of being stopped at the door before entry and needing to use hand sanitizer prior to entry. There's so much focus on masks and to a lesser extent social distancing here, but I think attention focused on personal hygiene has dropped off greatly in recent months and it is showing among the public. I'm definitely not seeing people get in to their cars and immediately use hand sanitizer the way they did religiously back in Spring, which makes me wonder about the rest, like are they returning home and washing their hands for enough time, etc.

  9. #4179

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    3rd major COVID-19 vaccine shown to be effective and cheaper

    By DANICA KIRKA


    LONDON (AP) — Drugmaker AstraZeneca said Monday that late-stage trials showed its COVID-19 vaccine is highly effective, buoying the prospects of a relatively cheap, easy-to-store product that may become the vaccine of choice for the developing world.

    The results are based on an interim analysis of trials in the U.K. and Brazil of a vaccine developed by Oxford University and manufactured by AstraZeneca. No hospitalizations or severe cases of COVID-19 were reported in those receiving the vaccine.

    AstraZeneca is the third major drug company to report late-stage data for a potential COVID-19 vaccine as the world waits for scientific breakthroughs that will end a pandemic that has pummeled the world economy and led to 1.4 million deaths. But unlike the others, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine doesn’t have to be stored at freezer temperatures, making it potentially easier to distribute, especially in developing countries.

    “I think these are really exciting results,” Dr. Andrew Pollard, chief investigator for the trial, said at a news conference. “Because the vaccine can be stored at fridge temperatures, it can be distributed around the world using the normal immunization distribution system. And so our goal … to make sure that we have a vaccine that was accessible everywhere, I think we’ve actually managed to do that.”

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in one of the dosing regimens tested; it was less effective in another. Earlier this month, rival drugmakers Pfizer and Moderna reported preliminary results from late-stage trials showing their vaccines were almost 95% effective.

    While the AstraZeneca vaccine can be stored at 2 degrees to 8 degrees Celsius (36 degrees to 46 degrees Fahrenheit), the Pfizer and Moderna products must be stored at freezer temperatures. In Pfizer’s case, it must be kept at the ultra-cold temperature of around minus-70 degrees Celsius (minus-94 Fahrenheit).

    The AstraZeneca vaccine is also cheaper.

    AstraZeneca, which has pledged it won’t make a profit on the vaccine during the pandemic, has reached agreements with governments and international health organizations that put its cost at about $2.50 a dose. Pfizer’s vaccine costs about $20, while Moderna’s is $15 to $25, based on agreements the companies have struck to supply their vaccines to the U.S. government.

    All three vaccines must be approved by regulators before they can be widely distributed.

    Oxford researchers and AstraZeneca stressed they weren’t competing with other projects and said multiple vaccines would be needed to reach enough of the world’s population to end the pandemic.

    “We need to be able to make a lot of vaccine for the world quickly, and it’s best if we can do it with different technologies so that if one technology runs into a roadblock, then we’ve got alternatives, we’ve got diversity,″ professor Sarah Gilbert, a leader of the Oxford team, told The Associated Press. “Diversity is going to be good here, but also in terms of manufacturing, we don’t want to run out of raw materials.”

    AstraZeneca said it will immediately apply for early approval of the vaccine where possible, and it will seek an emergency use listing from the World Health Organization, so it can make the vaccine available in low-income countries.

    The AstraZeneca trial looked at two different dosing regimens. A half-dose of the vaccine followed by a full dose at least one month later was 90% effective. Another approach, giving patients two full doses one month apart, was 62% effective.

    That means that, overall, when both ways of dosing are considered, the vaccine showed an efficacy rate of 70%.

    Gilbert said researchers aren’t sure why giving a half-dose followed by a larger dose was more effective, and they plan to investigate further. But the answer is probably related to providing exactly the right amount of vaccine to get the best response, she said.

    “It’s the Goldilocks amount that you want, I think, not too little and not too much. Too much could give you a poor quality response as well ...,″ she said. “I’m glad that we looked at more than one dose because it turns out to be really important.”

    The vaccine uses a weakened version of a common cold virus that is combined with genetic material for the characteristic spike protein of the virus that causes COVID-19. After vaccination, the spike protein primes the immune system to attack the virus if it later infects the body.

    Peter Openshaw, professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London, said the finding that a smaller initial dose is more effective than a larger one is good news because it may reduce costs and mean more people can be vaccinated with a given supply of the vaccine.

    “The report that an initial half-dose is better than a full dose seems counterintuitive for those of us thinking of vaccines as normal drugs: With drugs, we expect that higher doses have bigger effects, and more side-effects,” he said. “But the immune system does not work like that.”

    The results reported Monday come from trials in the U.K. and Brazil that involved 23,000 people. Of those, 11,636 people received the vaccine — while the rest got a placebo.

    Overall, there were 131 cases of COVID-19. Details on how many people in the various groups became ill weren’t released Monday, but researchers said they will be published in the next 24 hours.

    Late-stage trials of the vaccine are also underway in the U.S., Japan, Russia, South Africa, Kenya and Latin America, with further trials planned for other European and Asian countries.

    Researchers said they expect to add the half dose-full dose regimen to the U.S. trial in a “matter of weeks.” Before doing so they must discuss the changes with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

    The AstraZeneca trials were paused earlier this year after a participant in the U.K. study reported a rare neurological illness. While the trials were quickly restarted in most countries after investigators determined the condition wasn’t related to the vaccine, the FDA delayed the U.S. study for more than a month before it was allowed to resume.

    AstraZeneca has been ramping up manufacturing capacity, so it can supply hundreds of millions of doses of the vaccine starting in January, Chief Executive Pascal Soriot said earlier this month.

    Soriot said Monday that the Oxford vaccine’s simpler supply chain and AstraZeneca’s commitment to provide it on a nonprofit basis during the pandemic mean it will be affordable and available to people around the world.

    “This vaccine’s efficacy and safety confirm that it will be highly effective against COVID-19 and will have an immediate impact on this public health emergency,” Soriot said.

    British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he felt “a great sense of relief” at the news from AstraZeneca.

    Britain has ordered 100 million doses of the vaccine, and the government says several million doses can be produced before the end of the year if it is approved by regulators.

    Just months ago, “the idea that by November we would have three vaccines, all of which have got high effectiveness … I would have given my eye teeth for,” Hancock said.

    From the beginning of their collaboration with AstraZeneca, Oxford scientists have demanded that the vaccine be made available equitably to everyone in the world so rich countries can’t corner the market as has happened during previous pandemics.

    Leaders of the world’s most powerful nations on Sunday agreed to work together to ensure “affordable and equitable access” to COVID-19 drugs, tests and vaccines.

    “If we don’t have the vaccine available in many, many countries, and we just protect a small number of them, then we can’t go back to normal because the virus is going to keep coming back and causing problems again,” Gilbert said. “No one is safe until we’re all safe.”

    https://apnews.com/article/astrazene...5a1edc002ff028

  10. #4180

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    As there were a few questions.
    @Suliso. You are right. We have changed NOTHING major in the way people are going around. Just masks, sanitizer to go inside any store, limits of people at any location, and that has been pretty much it. We have not implemented even contact tracing as mandatory, although there is a website and some street signs telling people to report it (in the website) and alert their friends and people they have been in contact with, if they come down with it. I had a haircut today (way too Cro-magnon already, had to) and they gave me a disposable apron, took my phone number for tracing, and the lady was wearing a full suit.
    @Dry. Both countries had shopping by ID number. Vennieland still has it, Colombia dropped it. Supermarkets, as I say above, have limits of people that can shop at a time. Cashiers have screens and separators on the floor.
    @Jazz. I agree with Suliso that the sanitizer does little, physically. But I agree that they help in that everybody is aware. I have bought those little plastic dispensers and have one in my daily backpack, and one in my tennis one. They hang outside so I can always reach them, share if needed (seldom, everybody has them) and it reminds me to clean my hands when I come OUT of the supermarket.

    We are doing what can be done. And it seems to be "helping". I mean, I can no longer find the data for ICU occupancy. It is no front page news anymore.
    Face it. It's the apocalypse.

  11. #4181

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    James Hamblin
    @jameshamblin
    Outdoor dining has gradually escalated into what might reasonably be called a buildings.





    “No matter how cynical I get, I just can't keep up.” – Lily Tomlin.




  12. #4182

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    This is stupid. It's either safe eating indoors (with whatever extra measures) or isn't.
    Roger forever

  13. #4183

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Ti-Amie View Post
    James Hamblin
    @jameshamblin
    Outdoor dining has gradually escalated into what might reasonably be called a buildings.
    This takes the cake. They are killing me. We're just doing indoor dining outdoors and gonna pretend that doesn't make it indoor dining? Perfect.

  14. #4184

    Re: covid-19 Virus Updates and Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Ti-Amie View Post
    James Hamblin
    @jameshamblin
    Outdoor dining has gradually escalated into what might reasonably be called a buildings.





    Companie$ just $howing once again what their prioritie$ are.
    Go Pack Go!

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