Predictions : Shenzhen

[texasniteowl]

well, that is about the way my year has gone...for anyone who didn't know, Osaka has now withdrawn with a right shoulder injury.

[ptmcmahon]

JazzNU didn't have Osaka picked in a single match left, and obviously was only one without her in final (or semi.) Definitely looking good for first place at this point!

[JazzNU]

JazzNU didn't have Osaka picked in a single match left, and obviously was only one without her in final (or semi.) Definitely looking good for first place at this point!

I'm thinking this will be an effective jinx as I always figured I'd mess this up.

But what happens in this situation? Does Bertens take on Osaka's points or is it like Suicide Pool where it's gotta be that name? I can't really recall a mid-finals pull out, just when alternates are subbed in right before the first matches start.

[ptmcmahon]

I'm pretty sure it's always been you have to pick the right person to get the points. Had any of us wanted we could have chosen Bertens in the drop down anyway, so I think it's just a big fat bunch of zeroes for those picks.

[ptmcmahon]

Before works gets busy today, I'll give my unofficial scoreboard update for the day - Bertens win in match one obviously got nobody any points. Barty's loss also prevented her from clinching a semi spot which would have gotten everyone but patrick 4 semifinal points. I'll include in parenthesis everyone's pick for second match today.

8 - JazzNU (Kvtiova)
6 - dave g (Bencic)
6 - ptmcmahon (Bencic)
4 - mysterX (Kvitova)
4 - Omegadoom (Kvitova)
4 - patrick (Bencic)
4 - tenedab (Kvitova)
4 - fastbackss (Kvitova)

We'll either have JazzNU up by 4, or a three way tie at end of day.

[JazzNU]

I'm pretty sure it's always been you have to pick the right person to get the points. Had any of us wanted we could have chosen Bertens in the drop down anyway, so I think it's just a big fat bunch of zeroes for those picks.

Great point, forgot about the alternates being available. That would've been quite the savage move to pick an alternate before anyone pulled out. Bravo to anyone who did, I wouldn't have guessed right if I had predicted a who so I'm glad this didn't occur to me.

[ptmcmahon]

I can't remember anyone doing it... although maybe one of the years there was someone very questionable it may have happened? (Possibly Serena?)

[JazzNU]

Great point, forgot about the alternates being available. That would've been quite the savage move to pick an alternate before anyone pulled out. Bravo to anyone who did, I wouldn't have guessed right if I had predicted a who so I'm glad this didn't occur to me.

Ha! Spoke too soon.

[ptmcmahon]

Working out the scenarios ... wondering if Svitolina doesn't play the alternate on Friday if she is credited with a win or not? Asking for me and a friend (mysterx)

[ptmcmahon]

Today's unofficial scoreboard

10* - Jazznu
10 - dave g
10 - ptmcmahon
8 - patrick
8 - fastbackss
6 - tenedab
4 - mysterx
4 - omegadoom

Jazznu is also the only person who correctly had Svitolina in semis, so that 10 is really a 14.

With Bianca now also out, some people are getting low on picks remaining. I don't think any of our bottom three have enough unique picks left to be able to gain their way into the top 3, but don't quote me on that yet. I can say no one has more than one finalist left, and two have neither.

[ptmcmahon]

Unofficial scoreboard update.

I've added points for the three semifinalists we know. I'm also listing some additional info - first who we picked tomorrow with Bianca picks removed, second if we have Pliskova or Halep in semis (some of us have both, but only one will be in semis), third if we have a finalist, last if we have a winner:

22 - JazzNU(1) (Pliskova, Neither, Barty, Barty)
16 - Daveg(6) (Halep, Both, Barty, Barty)
14 - ptmcmahon(7) (Pliskova and Svitolina, Both, Pliskova, Pliskova)
14 - fastbackss(8) (Halep, Both, Barty, Barty)
12 - Omegadoom(2) (Pliskova, Pliskova, None, None)
12 - patrick(3) (Pliskova, Pliskova, None, None)
12 - tenedab(3) (Pliskova, Pliskova, Barty, None)
10 - mysterx(5) (Halep and Svitolina, Halep, Barty, None)

Analyzing scenarios now!

[ptmcmahon]

So again, these could be wrong from typos etc... but what I've worked out:

1) Halep wins tomorrow

A) If Barty makes final OR if Svitolina doesn't get a win tomorrow: Jazz 1st, Dave 2nd, fastbackss 3rd
B) If Svitolina wins tomorrow and Barty loses semifinal: Jazz 1st, Dave 2nd, ptmcmahon 3rd

2) Pliskova wins tomorrow

a) If Barty wins final - Jazz 1st, Dave 2nd, fastbackss 3rd
b) If Barty makes final and loses - Jazz 1st, Dave 2nd, tenedab 3rd
c) Svitolina wins tomorrow and Barty and Pliskova lose semis - Jazz 1st, ptmcmahon 2nd, Dave 3rd
d) Svitolina doesn't win tomorrow and Barty and Pliskova lose semis - Jazz 1st, Dave 2nd, ptmcmahon 3rd
e) Pliskova makes final - ptmcmahon 1st, Jazz 2nd, Dave 3rd

So I think JazzNU and Dave have clinched medals (at least silver for Jazz) and there are three of us going for the third one...

EDIT - Now that I look at scenarios, Pliskova would play Barty in semis so I can cross off the scenarios where they both lose semi!

[ptmcmahon]

Final unoffical update:

24 - JazzNU (has Barty winning final)
22 - ptmcmahon (has Pliskova winning final)
20 - daveg (has Barty winning final)
18 - omegadoom
18 - patrick
18 - tenedab (seeded 3rd, has Barty making final but not winning)
18 - fastbackss (seeded 8th, has Barty winning final)
12 - mysterx

Down to three scenarios:

a) If Barty wins final - Jazz 1st, Dave 2nd, fastbackss 3rd
b) If Barty makes final and loses - Jazz 1st, Dave 2nd, tenedab 3rd
c) If Pliskova makes final - ptmcmahon 1st, Jazz 2nd, Dave 3rd

[ptmcmahon]

I think our third alternate just medaled