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  1. #2176

    Re: The Run to the WH

    I liked this answer to a reader's question on a political site (emphasis mine).

    Q: On one hand, you cite the Democratic anxiety about voter turnout in Miami potentially being problematic for a Biden win; on the other hand, you have five polls today that have Biden ahead of Trump. Can you make me feel better about the dynamic here? I'm enthused about the polls, but terrified about the voter turnout issue and how that could reverberate across multiple swing states. C.S., Olympia, WA

    A: When (Z) was an undergraduate, a professor once explained how evidence works by noting that when Charles Manson went on trial, there were over 400 pieces of evidence that suggested he was innocent of the charges against him. However, there were also 2,000 pieces of evidence against him, which is why he ultimately went up the river and spent the rest of his life in the crowbar hotel.

    When it comes to this election, or any election, there are always indicators pointing in every direction. And when all is said and done, people will look back and point to the consistent national polling for Joe Biden, or late polling in Wisconsin, or sluggish Latino turnout in Miami, or Donald Trump's unwavering base, or FiveThirtyEight's voter models, or any of a dozen other things and will say "See! The signs were there!" The problem is that we don't have the benefit of hindsight right now, and can only judge based on the evidence before us, which is vast, if sometimes contradictory. And the lion's share of the evidence says that Joe Biden and the Democrats are in excellent shape and should have a very good day on Tuesday.
    Roger forever

  2. #2177

    Re: The Run to the WH

    A proper statistical explanation. The world needs more people like that.
    Face it. It's the apocalypse.

  3. #2178
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    Re: The Run to the WH

    538 has a very thorough analysis of when we should know election results by state. Obviously, I was reading it with a bias, but it seemed to me that more blue/purple states will take longer than red states. That said, it still may be possible to call some of those on election night.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/
    Tiz the Dude! Now a winner after his second race!

  4. #2179

    Re: The Run to the WH

    The harassment isn't alleged

    Dr. Eric Cervini
    @ericcervini
    These tactics have no place in Texas, my home state, and no place in America.
    Please vote. Please volunteer this weekend. The future of our democracy is at stake.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1322546782572859395
    “No matter how cynical I get, I just can't keep up.” – Lily Tomlin.




  5. #2180

    Re: The Run to the WH

    Mark Joseph Stern
    @mjs_DC
    Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming. https://assets.documentcloud.org/doc...0-cv-03709.pdf

    Judge Hanen has already scheduled an emergency hearing for Monday morning—without even giving Harris County a chance to file a response brief. This, too, is extremely concerning. It looks like he may be rushing to throw out 100,000 disproportionately Democratic votes.

    Texas Republicans are deploying the theory—recently endorsed by Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh—that only state legislatures have authority over elections. Because the Harris County Clerk implemented drive-through voting, Republicans say all 100,000 ballots must be tossed.

    Two partisan federal judges are already trying to nullify thousands of Minnesota ballots under this radical theory. I am deeply concerned that Judge Hanen, too, will use it to disenfranchise 100,000 Texans on the eve of Election Day. This is frightening.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...e-ballots.html
    “No matter how cynical I get, I just can't keep up.” – Lily Tomlin.




  6. #2181

    Re: The Run to the WH

    Quote Originally Posted by Ti-Amie View Post
    They think that L'il Wayne, 50, and Kanye will draw black men. Of the three the only one with any credibility is 50, and he lost it despite the retraction of his endorsement.

    Wayne drinks that "sizzurp" ish despite the fact that it causes him to have seizures and Kanye, well everyone knows about Kanye. It shows what a low opinion of black men they have.
    Quote Originally Posted by mmmm8 View Post
    I imagine in Philadelphia, it would nearly literally be almost a handful of black men. I'm surprised they're running target ads to the black community in Philly.

    So, part of what's going on with the black male vote is that again, they did this in 2016 as well, there is an effective, targeted misinformation campaign targeted at black (and brown) males. Is it super effective? No, but enough to pull small percentages here and there and if a state is close, it could make a difference along with other effective campaigns. If you listen to the black pollsters in particular who are talking personally much more to black voters both officially and unofficially, they have been able to determine this was an effective strategy because they'd hear the same buzzwords repeatedly after talking to voters and not know what the heck they were talking about and eventually were able to pinpoint the various misinformation campaigns targeted at them.

    There have been ads running on black radio for at least the last 2 months, but way more in the last month. They are laughably brazen, but what they say, if you were to believe them, sound great for black people. They just happen to be stating accomplishments as realistic as a unicorn. Also, they have been sending texts that are meant to deter voting as well. Hard to tell exactly, but given who I know who has received them, they seem to be targeting black senior citizens with those more than others. They are trying to get this state any way they can swing it.

    In order to win PA, they need depressed turnout in the 5-county Philly region. MSNBC has been busy showcasing Beaver County, outside of Pittsburgh, for their voter profile as a bellwether for the election, but Beaver County doesn't have even 1/3 the population of the least populous Philly area county. His campaign knows this, it's why were getting attacked in every direction to disrupt the vote in any way possible. Reports in the last couple of days say mail in the Philly area is taking over 5 days to arrive over 42% of the time, even worse than it was in late summer.

  7. #2182

    Re: The Run to the WH

    More on the situation Biden people faced in Austin area.

    Amanda Marcotte
    @AmandaMarcotte
    A group of Trumpers, many armed, surrounded the bus and terrorized the people inside.


    Joe Biden’s presidential campaign canceled a Friday event in Austin, Texas, after harassment from a pro-Trump contingent.

    Texas has emerged as a battleground state in Tuesday’s presidential election, with polls showing the typically Republican stronghold now only marginally favoring President Donald Trump. The Biden campaign scheduled a Friday event in the state, in a bid to drum up last-minute support.

    But when the Biden campaign bus drove to Austin, it was greeted by a blockade of pro-Trump demonstrators, leading to what one Texas House representative described as an escalation “well beyond safe limits.”

    The cancelation comes amid national anxiety about voter intimidation, a tactic the Trump campaign has implicitly endorsed.

    Historian Dr. Eric Cervini was driving to help with the Biden campaign stop when he filmed a line of pickup trucks along the highway, many of them flying Trump flags. The drivers were “waiting to ambush the Biden/Harris campaign bus as it traveled from San Antonio to Austin,” Cervini tweeted.

    “These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road,” he alleged. “They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car.”



    A Biden campaign staffer told The Daily Beast that Trump supporters surrounded the bus on the highway and slowed down in front of it, attempting to stop it or run it off the road. The official sent a picture taken on the bus, showing Trump trucks surrounding the front of the vehicle. Staffers on the bus called police, who helped the bus reach its destination.

    Video from the highway shows trucks surrounding the bus, at one point colliding with an SUV.

    Footage from a CBS affiliate in Austin shows Trump supporters with signs and bullhorns surrounding the bus when it parked, with one person screaming that Biden was a communist.

    Rep. Sheryl Cole, a Democrat representing nearby Pflugerville in Texas’s House, announced that a Biden event in her city had been canceled due to the harassment.

    “This is a 1st for me - but we just cancelled a joint event in Pflugerville w/ @JoeBiden campaign,

    @AustinYoungDems, & more, due to security reasons,” she tweeted. “Unfortunately, Pro-Trump Protestors have escalated well beyond safe limits. Sorry to all who looked forward to this fun event.”

    The Biden campaign’s Texas communications director, Tariq Thowfeek, said holding the event would have placed Biden staffers and supporters at risk.

    “Rather than engage in productive conversation about the drastically different visions that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have for our country, Trump supporters in Texas today instead decided to put our staff, surrogates, supporters, and others in harm’s way,” Thowfeek told The Daily Beat.

    “Our supporters will continue to organize their communities for Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Democrats up and down the ballot, and to the Texans who disrupted our events today: We’ll see you on November 3rd.”

    The Trump campaign—and often Trump himself—has encouraged in-person conflict around the polls. Trump used the first presidential debate to urge supporters to act as “poll watchers,” a call that sparked concerns of voter intimidation. His son, Donald Trump Jr., made an explicit call-out regarding the Biden campaign’s Texas outreach efforts.

    In a video ahead of a Friday event by Biden’s running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, Trump Jr. encouraged his father’s supporters to show up at Harris’s event.

    “Hey Laredo, Don Jr. here,” he said. “I heard you had an awesome turnout for the Trump Train. It’d be great if you guys would all get together, head down to McAllen and give Kamala Harris a nice Trump Train welcome. Get out there, have some fun, enjoy it. Don’t forget to vote and bring all of your friends. Let’s show them how strong Texas still is as Trump country. Get out there, guys.”

    Some Trump supporters appeared to heed the call. At least one Facebook event with more than 700 responses, viewed by The Daily Beast, encouraged Trump fans to attend a Harris event in Fort Worth, Texas on Friday and “give Kamala Harris a big Texas welcome..... TRUMP STYLE!” The event was listed as canceled ahead of time, although its organizers acknowledged that some people might still try to attend, “and that's your right.”

    Trump supporters have previously been accused of intimidation this election. In Beverly Hills, California this week, an Australian television personality filmed participants at a pro-Trump rally shouting at her and threatening her in her car. A man brandishing a Trump flag at her appeared to photograph her and take down her license plate number.

    “We’ve got you now,” the man shouted. “You’re going to vote for Trump whether you like it or not, you’ve got no choice.”


    When Biden spoke at a Minnesota event on Friday, the same day as his campaign was ambushed in Austin, Trump supporters in a caravan of vehicles reportedly surrounded the venue honking their horns and chanting.

    During early voting in the swing state of Virginia late last month, a caravan of Trump supporters drove to the Democratic-leaning Fairfax County and surrounded people in an early voting line, shouting at them on loudspeakers

    “We had a couple poll observers there that had to actually escort voters in because we saw people that would get to the edge of the parking lot, and see this giant group of Trumpers yelling and screaming,” the executive director of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee told The Daily Beast at the time.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-...n-campaign-bus
    “No matter how cynical I get, I just can't keep up.” – Lily Tomlin.




  8. #2183

    Re: The Run to the WH

    @dry, your county is up to voting shenanigans


    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/7-penns...-mail-ballots/

  9. #2184
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    Re: The Run to the WH

    Quote Originally Posted by dryrunguy View Post
    538 has a very thorough analysis of when we should know election results by state. Obviously, I was reading it with a bias, but it seemed to me that more blue/purple states will take longer than red states. That said, it still may be possible to call some of those on election night.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/

    I think Biden will hit 270+ on Tuesday night with fairly high confidence. Not a slam dunk, but a lead that would require Trump to prevail on a series of legal challenges and late-count swings that are just hard to imagine all going his way.

  10. #2185
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    Re: The Run to the WH

    Quote Originally Posted by JazzNU View Post
    @dry, your county is up to voting shenanigans


    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/7-penns...-mail-ballots/
    I'm not sure why they would do that in Franklin County. This is rock solid 45 territory, even Chambersburg. Same with Cumberland County. I don't know the other counties that well. (Sorry, I am a horrible Pennsylvanian.)

    I wonder if all of those counties are similarly Trump strongholds?

    I didn't see Huntingdon County on the list of those delaying the count. That's an even bigger Trump stronghold than my county--in spite of their COVID outbreak over the past month or so.

    Sidebar: I was on my way back from the other side of Shirleysburg the other day and got stuck behind a school bus. When it stopped in Shirleysburg, a zillion kids got off. Only about 1/4 of them were wearing masks. And the bus included elementary, middle, and high school students. Couldn't believe what I was seeing. But then again, I shouldn't be the least bit surprised.
    Tiz the Dude! Now a winner after his second race!

  11. #2186

    Re: The Run to the WH

    Quote Originally Posted by Woody View Post
    I think Biden will hit 270+ on Tuesday night with fairly high confidence. Not a slam dunk, but a lead that would require Trump to prevail on a series of legal challenges and late-count swings that are just hard to imagine all going his way.
    The "what will Vlad do?" factor has to be expected.
    Face it. It's the apocalypse.

  12. #2187

    Re: The Run to the WH

    Quote Originally Posted by dryrunguy View Post
    I'm not sure why they would do that in Franklin County. This is rock solid 45 territory, even Chambersburg. Same with Cumberland County. I don't know the other counties that well. (Sorry, I am a horrible Pennsylvanian.)

    I wonder if all of those counties are similarly Trump strongholds?
    Two part strategy. They want to believe they will lead on Election Day and be able to declare themselves the victor. He seems to think if he's leading come midnight on Election Day, even if states aren't called, him calling himself the winner holds some weight. And the second part, a recent strategy emerging in the couple of days is that he's going to try to say if the ballot wasn't COUNTED by Election Day, then it doesn't count at all. With PA not opening mail-in ballots until the day of, this plays into this strategy and counties with commissioners drinking the Kool Aid seem to be on board with playing into this strategy. So, doesn't matter if the mail-in ballot arrived and all that, if it's not tabulated on that day, it doesn't get to count at all. Essentially, trying to invalidate all mail-in ballots not in the totals by Election Night.

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