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  1. #61
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    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by suliso View Post
    In retrospect Anderson was the best choice, but perhaps I'll survive with Monfils as well.
    The key words there are "in retrospect". As dolphins and I were discussing his Day 7 pick and going through H2H and other info, we were struck by the fact that, while Cilic held a 4-2 edge against Lopez in their H2H, Feliciano had won both of their matches on clay. Meanwhile, Cilic has something like a 5-1 edge against Anderson (1-1 on clay) and Lopez has never beaten Anderson in four tries.

    So Anderson's win looks a lot better since Cilic also beat Lopez. Had Feliciano won that match, it could have been dicey going forward.

    Regardless, I'm guessing the top half of the draw will be the undoing for most folks, and today was probably the toughest day in the men's pool because of the choices, the draw positioning, and the rapidly reducing margin for error (i.e., you all are reaching the point where someone needs to win one day and lose two days later--or it gets really messy really fast).
    Winston, a.k.a. Alvena Rae Risley Hiatt (1944-2019), RIP

  2. #62

    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Sadly, we had 3 more people give up the ghost and make no pick for Day 7, so we start the day with 51

    Pablo Cuevas 15
    Kei Nishikori 11
    Kevin Anderson 8
    John Isner 7
    Marin Cilic 6
    Gael Monfils 3
    Kyle Edmund 1

    The biggest bandwagon has already gone down.
    Last edited by munchin; 06-04-2017 at 07:59 AM.
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  3. #63
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    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by dryrunguy View Post
    The key words there are "in retrospect". As dolphins and I were discussing his Day 7 pick and going through H2H and other info, we were struck by the fact that, while Cilic held a 4-2 edge against Lopez in their H2H, Feliciano had won both of their matches on clay. Meanwhile, Cilic has something like a 5-1 edge against Anderson (1-1 on clay) and Lopez has never beaten Anderson in four tries.

    So Anderson's win looks a lot better since Cilic also beat Lopez. Had Feliciano won that match, it could have been dicey going forward.

    Regardless, I'm guessing the top half of the draw will be the undoing for most folks, and today was probably the toughest day in the men's pool because of the choices, the draw positioning, and the rapidly reducing margin for error (i.e., you all are reaching the point where someone needs to win one day and lose two days later--or it gets really messy really fast).
    I changed my pick from Cilic to Nishikori to save Cilic for his match against the Anderson/Edmund winner. Was all looking good when Nishikori was up 2 sets. He seems to have suddenly lost the plot. Lost the third and down a break in the fourth.

  4. #64

    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    The reason I took such a risk with Monfils is that I need my previous picks to lose soon and he'd play Wawrinka next who I believe will be a top half finalist.
    Roger forever

  5. #65

    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by suliso View Post
    In retrospect Anderson was the best choice, but perhaps I'll survive with Monfils as well.
    And you see, that is the insanity of this game.
    Fine, you picked Monfils. But these two guys are 7-6 H2H (Monfils), with no discernible patterns (Monfils won their only clay court match), both are locals so the crowd will be split and they both won easily their last match.
    So what criteria to use? I guess you had to look forward to what is best for you in terms of not running out of picks soon. But basically, you just flipped a coin. Which we all have to do at one turn or another in this contest.
    Cuevas was a coin flip. it was a good pick. H2H was very close (2-1 before this match), all on clay, but Cuevas has been playing well lately as opposed to Verdasco. We still got burnt.
    Missing winter...

  6. #66

    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ponchi101 View Post
    And you see, that is the insanity of this game.
    Fine, you picked Monfils. But these two guys are 7-6 H2H (Monfils), with no discernible patterns (Monfils won their only clay court match), both are locals so the crowd will be split and they both won easily their last match.
    So what criteria to use? I guess you had to look forward to what is best for you in terms of not running out of picks soon. But basically, you just flipped a coin. Which we all have to do at one turn or another in this contest.
    Cuevas was a coin flip. it was a good pick. H2H was very close (2-1 before this match), all on clay, but Cuevas has been playing well lately as opposed to Verdasco. We still got burnt.
    I don't think it's possible to win this game without ever picking from a 50/50 match. My thinking was that Monfils is stronger on clay and will for sure lose to Wawrinka in the next round. Right or wrong we'll find out soon...
    Roger forever

  7. #67
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    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    All four of the most obvious matches to pick from today (based on draw positioning) were in the 50/50 ballpark--not just Monfils/Gasquet.
    Winston, a.k.a. Alvena Rae Risley Hiatt (1944-2019), RIP

  8. #68

    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Just to add Cuevas wasn't a bad choice either, I just didn't trust him...
    Roger forever

  9. #69

    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by suliso View Post
    The reason I took such a risk with Monfils is that I need my previous picks to lose soon and he'd play Wawrinka next who I believe will be a top half finalist.
    That was true for me plus I already used Gasquet! Agree with dry that the most obvious picks were 50/50.

  10. #70
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    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Irena2 View Post
    That was true for me plus I already used Gasquet! Agree with dry that the most obvious picks were 50/50.
    Other than figuring out what to do with Djokovic, which of course is a big question mark, the bottom half of the draw seems pretty cut and dry, no pun intended. The top half, though, is a messy minefield. And now the fact that some of these guys will have to play three days in a row doesn't help. Or maybe it does. The scheduling made sure the main contenders (except for Nishikori) will get a day off.
    Winston, a.k.a. Alvena Rae Risley Hiatt (1944-2019), RIP

  11. #71

    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by dryrunguy View Post
    The scheduling made sure the main contenders (except for Nishikori) will get a day off.
    Main contenders......Nishikori...........
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  12. #72
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    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by nelslus View Post
    Main contenders......Nishikori...........
    Well, it seemed rational when I wrote it. LOL!
    Winston, a.k.a. Alvena Rae Risley Hiatt (1944-2019), RIP

  13. #73

    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    I don't see the 'for sure lose' to Wawrinka. Those 3 Gasquet, Monfils, and Wawrinka could all come out of that bracket. They all have good records against eachother.

  14. #74

    Re: 2017 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by munchin View Post
    Sadly, we had 3 more people give up the ghost and make no pick for Day 7, so we start the day with 51

    Pablo Cuevas 15
    Kei Nishikori 11
    Kevin Anderson 8
    John Isner 7
    Marin Cilic 6
    Gael Monfils 3
    Kyle Edmund 1

    The biggest bandwagon has already gone down.
    So with Isner going down, 28 officially enter Day 8. Stay tuned for an Updated Picks & Results thread
    Last edited by munchin; 06-04-2017 at 09:06 AM.
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