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  1. #1

    2017. What's in store?

    Can we make reasonable predictions for 2017, based on our very diverse areas of expertise? Are we better than most PoliScience quacks in CNN or (you bet) Fox news?
    Can we precisely determine not only when it will hit the fan, but the force, momentum and brand of fan that will be involved in the collision?

    Lets see how good we are at forecasts, collectively.

    From my side:
    Oil WILL NOT REBOUND yet. With a third year of "depressed" prices (actually meaning lower profits to the ever greedy Oil Companies and their stockholders) the effects in the world economy will go further into a STOP mode, as many wealthy environments will be affected by this cash drought (in the USA, states like Texas and OK will continue to suffer and this will spill over to nearby regions that are supported by Oil spending). With the new buffoon in town unable to figure out any of this, chances of a small recession are good.
    And with oil at such low prices for the third year in a row, there will be very little economic incentive for non-developed economies to switch to renewables, making Climate Change control even more difficult.
    Face it. It's the apocalypse.

  2. #2

    Re: 2017. What's in store?

    Quote Originally Posted by ponchi101 View Post
    Can we make reasonable predictions for 2017, based on our very diverse areas of expertise? Are we better than most PoliScience quacks in CNN or (you bet) Fox news?
    Can we precisely determine not only when it will hit the fan, but the force, momentum and brand of fan that will be involved in the collision?

    Lets see how good we are at forecasts, collectively.

    From my side:
    Oil WILL NOT REBOUND yet. With a third year of "depressed" prices (actually meaning lower profits to the ever greedy Oil Companies and their stockholders) the effects in the world economy will go further into a STOP mode, as many wealthy environments will be affected by this cash drought (in the USA, states like Texas and OK will continue to suffer and this will spill over to nearby regions that are supported by Oil spending). With the new buffoon in town unable to figure out any of this, chances of a small recession are good.
    And with oil at such low prices for the third year in a row, there will be very little economic incentive for non-developed economies to switch to renewables, making Climate Change control even more difficult.
    I suspect that the recent move by OPEC and several other oil producing countries to reduce production will offset this somewhat. However, I have not paid enough attention to the recent events to know how much effect the reduction in production will have. Your opinion on the effects of the recent planned oil production reductions would be appreciated.
    My Suicide Draw Pool avatar

  3. #3

    Re: 2017. What's in store?

    I think the incoming US administration will try and start a war somewhere to fulfill "Biblical prophesies" or some other such thing. It's what they do.
    “No matter how cynical I get, I just can't keep up.” – Lily Tomlin.




  4. #4
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    Re: 2017. What's in store?

    I can't predict anything until I have a better sense for who is genuinely going to run this administration. If Trump is actively in charge and leading, it will be bad. If Pence is running the show behind the scenes, it will be horrific, especially for women and sexual minorities, and the ultimate goal will be a fully theocratic state. If Priebus is in charge, it will be less bad than Trump, but still bad. If Bannon is the king of the policy agenda, it will be apocalyptically horrific and we just might be resurrecting some form of the underground railroad. No joke.
    Winston, a.k.a. Alvena Rae Risley Hiatt (1944-2019), RIP

  5. #5

    Re: 2017. What's in store?

    Quote Originally Posted by dryrunguy View Post
    I can't predict anything until I have a better sense for who is genuinely going to run this administration. If Trump is actively in charge and leading, it will be bad. If Pence is running the show behind the scenes, it will be horrific, especially for women and sexual minorities, and the ultimate goal will be a fully theocratic state. If Priebus is in charge, it will be less bad than Trump, but still bad. If Bannon is the king of the policy agenda, it will be apocalyptically horrific and we just might be resurrecting some form of the underground railroad. No joke.
    Looks like it's him at least in the early days...
    Roger forever

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