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  1. #10876

    Re: Politics Random Random

    Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman 4m4 minutes ago
    Martin Longman makes an interesting prediction, and I think he has a very good case 1

    In international econ we often talk about "Dornbusch's Law", which says that predictable crises take longer to happen than you imagine 2/

    But unfold, when they do happen, much faster than anyone expects. I think you can tell a similar story about Trump 3/

    You watch him in action, and you see someone totally incapable of being president; yet Republicans seem endlessly willing to protect him 4/

    But Rs in Congress value Trump as chump -- they despise him, but think he's the guy who will sign their nasty health bill and cut taxes 5/

    Now their policy agenda is in big trouble -- on its own lack of merit, btw, not because of Trump. Meanwhile the investigations close in 6/

    So it's not hard to imagine a sudden break. Trump has already provided plenty of material for either impeachment or 25th amendment. 7/

    It's quite easy to imagine a scenario a few months from now when a trickle of Rs start to say "we have to get rid of this guy" 8/

    And that trickle -- like the defections from BCRA this past week -- could quickly become a flood 9/
    "For the person that we know in the daytime, we don't need to light a lamp to see his face at night." Ghanaian Proverb

  2. #10877

    Re: Politics Random Random

    For those of you who don't understand what "sundowning" is for people suffering from dementia 45 is putting on a clinic this evening on Twitter.
    "For the person that we know in the daytime, we don't need to light a lamp to see his face at night." Ghanaian Proverb

  3. #10878
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    Aug 2004
    Dallas, Texas

    Re: Politics Random Random

    Quote Originally Posted by Ti-Amie View Post
    For those of you who don't understand what "sundowning" is for people suffering from dementia 45 is putting on a clinic this evening on Twitter.
    OMG! I wish this was a bad dream.

    Sent from my SM-J327P using Tapatalk

  4. #10879

    Re: Politics Random Random

    Ruben Major‏

    Replying to @rubenkmajor @realDonaldTrump
    Neither Wisconsin, Michigan nor Illinois got requests from Kobach "Election Integrity" Commission for voter roll data, Why?
    "For the person that we know in the daytime, we don't need to light a lamp to see his face at night." Ghanaian Proverb

  5. #10880

    Re: Politics Random Random

    Looks like Ben Sasse will be running for President.
    We All Play for Canada

  6. #10881

    Re: Politics Random Random


    GA06 final numbers. Please read this and tell me that something doesn't stink there. This is why we have to fight.

    "For the person that we know in the daytime, we don't need to light a lamp to see his face at night." Ghanaian Proverb

  7. #10882

    Re: Politics Random Random

    Those are all nice statistics but it's difficult to know what they mean without a comparison with previous elections in the district. How do previous elections compare in terms of the percentage of votes for each party by various methods? I know that political orthodoxy says that Democrats and die-hards vote early, and that often seems to be born out by early voting numbers that look favourable to Democrats in many different races that the Republicans go on to win.
    We All Play for Canada

  8. #10883

    Re: Politics Random Random

    Please, check out today's NON-SEQUITUR. Two years of political discussion summarized in one cartoon.
    (It will only work for today, of course)
    Starry starry night

  9. #10884

    Re: Politics Random Random

    Poll finds Trump standing weakened since springtime
    By Scott Clement and Dan Balz July 16 at 12:01 AM

    President Trump’s standing with the American people has deteriorated since the spring, buffeted by perceptions of a decline in U.S. leadership abroad, a stalled presidential agenda at home and an unpopular Republican health-care bill, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

    Approaching six months in office, Trump’s overall approval rating has dropped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April. His disapproval rating has risen five points to 58 percent. Overall, 48 percent say they “disapprove strongly” of Trump’s performance in office, a level never reached by former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama and reached only in the second term of George W. Bush in Post-ABC polling.

    Almost half of all Americans (48 percent) see the country’s leadership in the world as weaker since Trump was inaugurated, compared with 27 percent who say it is stronger. Despite the fact that Trump campaigned as someone skilled at making deals that would be good for the country, majorities also say they do not trust him in negotiations with foreign leaders and in particular Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    Just over one-third of all Americans say they trust the president either “a great deal” or “a good amount” in any such foreign negotiations. Asked specifically about Trump-Putin negotiations, almost 2 in 3 say they do not trust the president much, including 48 percent who say they do not trust the president “at all.”

    Perceptions about the role of Russia in the 2016 election and possible collusion or cooperation with Trump campaign associates continue to be a drag on the president, though like many other questions, results show a clear partisan divide.

    The Post-ABC poll finds 60 percent of Americans think Russia tried to influence the election outcome, up slightly from 56 percent in April. Some 44 percent suspect Russian interference and think Trump benefited from their efforts. Roughly 4 in 10 believe members of Trump’s campaign intentionally aided Russian efforts to influence the election, though suspicions have changed little since the spring.

    Americans’ views on Russia’s role in the election continue to divide along partisan lines. Among Democrats, 8 in 10 believe Russia attempted to influence the election and more than 6 in 10 think members of Trump’s team attempted to aid their efforts. But among Republicans, one-third think Russia tried to influence the election outcome, and fewer than 1 in 10 think Trump’s associates sought to help them.

    Last week, information was revealed by the New York Times that Donald Trump Jr. and two other senior campaign officials met with a Russian lawyer and others after being offered damaging information about Hillary Clinton and told that the information was part of a Russian government effort to help Trump.

    Asked about this revelation, more than 6 in 10 Americans say the meeting was inappropriate, with just about a quarter saying it was appropriate. But almost half of all Republicans call the meeting appropriate.

    Suspicions of Trump have eased at least slightly on one front. While 52 percent think he is trying to interfere with investigations into Russia’s possible election interference, that is down slightly from 56 percent in June.

    The president’s strongest assets continue to be the healthy economy and a view among many Americans that the Democrats do not have a coherent message or program in opposition, other than opposition to the president.

    Trump’s approval rating on the economy, in contrast to his overall rating, is about one-to-one, with 43 percent giving him positive marks and 41 percent giving him negative ratings. Meanwhile, fewer than 4 in 10 say the Democratic Party currently stands for something, while a slight majority say it “just stands against Trump.”

    Beyond those areas, Trump continues to be deeply unpopular. His standing is a mirror opposite of Obama and Bush at this point in their first terms. Each held a 59 percent job approval rating in Post-ABC polling. Trump’s standing is closer to that of Bill Clinton’s, who hit a record low 43 percent approval in late June 1993, before rebounding later that year.

    Half of Americans say Trump is doing a worse job than most past presidents, while just under one-quarter say he is doing better, and a similar share say he is faring about the same as previous presidents. A 55 percent majority say Trump is not making significant progress toward his goals.

    The survey points to many causes for Trump’s troubles. As Republican senators attempt to pass major health-care legislation, the poll finds about twice as many Americans prefer the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, to GOP plans for replacing it — 50 percent to 24 percent. About a quarter volunteer either “neither,” say they want something else or offer no opinion.

    Independents are an important factor in the Republican law’s struggles. They favor Obamacare over the GOP replacement by a 29-point margin. Democrats are more strongly behind the current law, with 77 percent preferring Obamacare to the proposed alternative. Meanwhile, only 59 percent of Republicans back their party’s proposal, though only 11 percent say they prefer Obamacare. The remaining 30 percent of Republicans say they prefer neither, something else or give no opinion.

    On one key issue in the debate over the Republican plan, the public by 63 to 27 percent says it is more important for the government to provide health coverage to low-income people rather than cutting taxes. Republican proposals include major reductions in spending increases for Medicaid, while eliminating many taxes and fees imposed by the 2010 Affordable Care Act to expand the program.
    "For the person that we know in the daytime, we don't need to light a lamp to see his face at night." Ghanaian Proverb

  10. #10885

    Re: Politics Random Random

    Bradd Jaffy‏Verified account @BraddJaffy 7m7 minutes ago
    New Monmouth poll:

    —41% say Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency

    (24% supported Nixon impeachment in July 1973)
    "For the person that we know in the daytime, we don't need to light a lamp to see his face at night." Ghanaian Proverb

  11. #10886

    Re: Politics Random Random

    *Adam Jentleson‏Verified account

    Having spent countless hours listening to McConnell & years working with his office, I'd like to offer a few thoughts on tonight's news. 1/

    First & foremost, what we're witnessing is an unprecedented, full-blown rebellion by Republican senators against their leader, McConnell. 2/

    I worked for Reid for years. Democratic senators criticized him occasionally, although they'd usually joke about it.

    Reid's status as leader was based on a mixture of love & respect from the caucus.

    McConnell's political victories have come at a steep price for the institution. He has taken power & influence away from other senators. 5/

    His fellow Rs did not like losing their individual power, but they were willing to abide it as long as McConnell delivered victories. 6/

    The ? has always been, what happen to McConnell when he hits a dry spell - especially one that his scorched-Earth tactics precipitated. 7/

    We're seeing indications of that tonight. This sounds like trolling but I'm honestly shocked at how nasty Repuicans are being towards him 8/

    Adam Jentleson‏Verified account @AJentleson 52m52 minutes ago
    Accusing your leader of a "significant breach of trust" is about as harsh as it gets in Senate-speak. 9/

    Senators want to get things done. McConnell's pitch to his fellow Republicans was always, let's get power & THEN we'll get things done. 10/

    Their problem now is that the tactics McConnell employed to accrue power undercut their ability to get things done.

    Earth, scorched. 11/

    Reid employed dramatic tactics at times, but he was able to balance it with empowering senators and delivering accomplishments. 12/

    Suffice to say, McConnell is finding that balance harder to strike. 13/

    On prospects for repeal, I agree with everyone who's saying keep the pressure up- this bill is the Terminator. It will keep coming back. 14/

    McConnell will play off this setback in that weird way that DC reporters intrepidly persist in finding charming. (I don't see it.) 15/

    But make no mistake - this is a MASSIVE humiliation for McConnell. And he'll spend every waking moment plotting his redemption. 16/

    Lastly: the breadth of the rebellion is fascinating and suggests that this was coordinated. Lee/Moran jumped first to give others cover. 17/

    That prospect is truly jaw-dropping: a COORDINATED rebellion against McConnell?

    Six months into unified Repubmican control??

    Yeesh. 18/

    I wonder about the 2 cancelled weeks of recess- will that still happen?

    Public statements aside, members HATE having recess cancelled 19/

    That seemed punitive. McConnell's announcement came after a conference meeting that did not go well for him.

    I wonder how it fits in. 20/

    I'm just rambling now.

    But boy howdy, what a thing to witness.

    From the savior of the Senate, no less.

    Who could have predicted? 21/

    *Adam JentlesonVerified account
    Former Deputy Chief of Staff, Senator Harry Reid | Senior Strategic Advisor, @CAPAction

    parislady1492‏ @parislady1492 7m7 minutes ago
    Replying to @AJentleson
    Adam what about McConnells proposal to repeal ACA & replace it in 2 yrs

    Baseball‏ @baseballminutia 2m2 minutes ago
    Replying to @AJentleson
    He's played his hand, it's a bluff. Time to price his ass out of the game so business can get done. The Senate is a group, not a leader
    "For the person that we know in the daytime, we don't need to light a lamp to see his face at night." Ghanaian Proverb

  12. #10887

    Re: Politics Random Random

    July 18, 2017

    Health Care a Mine Field for Republicans; Many Trump Voters in Denial on Russia

    PPP's newest national poll continues to find that health care is a mine field for the GOP, while most Trump voters are just choosing not to acknowledge the Russia story.

    Only 20% of voters support the health care bill that was being considered by Congress until last night, to 57% who are opposed to it. Even among Republicans there's only very narrow support for it- 35% in favor, 34% opposed, and 31% not sure. Democrats (10/72) and independents (17/61) are each strongly opposed to it. 58% of voters say they want Congress to keep the Affordable Care Act in place and make changes to it as necessary, to just 35% who think the best path forward is repealing the ACA and starting over.

    Health care could have big electoral implications in 2018. 53% of voters said they were less likely to vote for a member of Congress if they supported the health care bill being considered, to only 21% who said they'd be more likely to support a member who voted yes. One thing that's particularly notable is the division even within the Republican base on that front. Only 36% of GOP voters would be more likely to support a member of Congress if they voted for that health care bill, to 32% who would be less likely to. That suggests bucking the party on health care isn't the kind of thing that's so unpopular it would have much chance of leading to a successful primary challenge from the right.

    The current political climate is already looking dicey for Republicans as the 2018 midterms loom. Democrats have a 50/40 lead on the generic Congressional ballot. Much gets made of Donald Trump's unpopularity and certainly it's true voters don't care for him- only 41% approve of the job he's doing to 55% who disapprove. But Trump comes out looking positively popular compared to Paul Ryan (24/57 approval) and Mitch McConnell (18/58). Congress overall has an 11% approval rating, to 75% of voters who disapprove of it. Democrats should have the opportunity next year to turn them into bogeymen much as Republicans have with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in recent years.

    Health care is turning a lot more Republican leaning voters against their own party's leadership than Russia is. On Russia related issues we find a certain degree of willful ignorance among Trump voters that can possibly best be summarized by this finding: only 45% of Trump voters believe Donald Trump Jr. had a meeting with Russians about information that might be harmful to Hillary Clinton...even though Trump Jr. admitted it. 32% say the meeting didn't happen and 24% say they're not sure.

    That finding is in keeping with the general attitude of Trump voters toward the Russia story which is 'don't know, don't care':

    -72% of Trump voters consider the Russia story overall to be 'fake news,' only 14% disagree.

    -Only 24% of Trump voters even want an investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia, 64% are opposed to an investigation.

    -Even if there was an investigation, and it found that the Trump campaign did collude with Russia to aid his campaign, 77% of his supporters think he should still stay in office to just 16% who believe he should resign.

    -Only 26% of Trump voters admit that Russia wanted Trump to win the election, 44% claim Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win, and 31% say they're not sure one way or the other.

    -Just 13% of Trump voters believe that members of Trump's campaign team did work with the Russians to help his campaign, to 81% who say they didn't. On a related note only 9% believe that either Donald Trump Jr. or Jared Kushner engaged in illegal activity to help Trump get elected, to 77% who say Kushner didn't and 79% who say Trump Jr. didn't.

    None of that is to say Trump's overall position isn't bad. Only 41% of voters approve of the job he's doing, to 55% who disapprove. Just 37% of voters consider Trump to be honest, to 57% who say he isn't. And 52% outright call him a liar, with only 40% disagreeing with that characterization.

    Trump does a lot of losing in our poll. Voters wish that either Barack Obama (53/40) or Hillary Clinton (49/42) was President instead of Trump. Trump loses by wide margins in hypothetical matches against Joe Biden (54/39) or Bernie Sanders (52/39) for reelection. Trump loses 12-13% of the folks who voted for him last fall to either Biden or Sanders. Trump also trails in hypothetical contests against Elizabeth Warren (49/42), Cory Booker (45/40), and Kamala Harris (41/40). The one Democrat Trump manages a tie against is Mark Zuckerberg, at 40/40. Zuckerberg is actually not a particularly well known figure nationally- 47% of voters say they have no opinion about him to 24% with a positive one and 29% with a negative one.

    Trump also does a lot of losing to the media in our new poll. Voters say they trust NBC and ABC each more than him, 56/38. They say they trust CBS more than him 56/39. They say they trust the New York Times more than him 55/38. They say they trust CNN more than him 54/39. And they say they trust the Washington Post more than him 53/38.
    Only 35% of voters support his border wall with Mexico to 57% who are opposed. 61% of voters still want to see Trump's tax returns, to only 34% who say it's not necessary. In fact 56% would support a law requiring Presidential candidates to release 5 years of tax returns to even appear on the ballot, to 35% opposed to that.

    Trump does win on one question in our poll- asked whether they think he or Richard Nixon is more corrupt, Trump wins out 42/35. Only 35% of voters think he has 'Made America Great Again' to 57% who say he has not. And a plurality- 45%- support his impeachment- to just 43% opposed.

    Trump's right about one thing though- he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose most of his support. 45% say they would still approve of him even if he shot someone to 29% who say they would disapprove, and 26% who aren't sure one way or the other.

    Finally we asked a few questions about redistricting on our national poll, and found it's a rare issue that unites voters across party lines:

    -Only 16% of voters think politicians generally draw lines for Congressional and Legislative districts that are fair, to 60% who think they're usually unfair. Just 23% of Republicans, and 13% of Democrats and independents think that district lines are currently being drawn in a way that's generally fair.

    -68% of voters would support laws in their states requiring that Congressional and Legislative district lines be drawn in a nonpartisan fashion, to only 10% opposed to those kinds of laws. 71% of independents, 70% of Democrats, and 63% of Republicans support nonpartisan redistricting.

    Full results here
    "For the person that we know in the daytime, we don't need to light a lamp to see his face at night." Ghanaian Proverb

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