Election 2012

[Ti-Amie]

Test of Fire: Election 2012

Just give me my hand basket. I started laughing midway through.

[Kirkus]

Test of Fire: Election 2012

I kind of like it. I don't agree with it, obviously. But it's slick and professional. And I'll bet it will be effective.

[dryrunguy]

I think I agree, Kirk. It's a tad dramatic. Very Game of Thrones almost. Half way through I was expecting someone to be beheaded.

I bet it will play well among men. It's very butch. But I don't think Catholic women will be particularly moved by it.

Now, Protestant evangelicals across the board, I bet, would eat this up if the same ad was used and they changed "Catholics" to "Christians"... (Seeing as there's still a decent number of evangelicals who believe Catholics are going to hell.)

[owendonovan]

Kim Kardashian Confirms She Wants To Run For Mayor
What better place for Kim Kardashian to start campaigning for mayor than Washington, DC? The reality star has talked about running for mayor of her hometown, and on April 28 she revealed her political plans at the White House Correspondents Dinner!
The 31-year-old said she’s passionate about helping the Armenian population in Glendale, and has even met with councilmen to talk about the issues affecting the community.
“I’m thinking about it,” Kim said about running for mayor. “I always set my goals really high, so stay tuned.”

The Mayor of Glendale is an appointed city council member, not elected. I loathe what reality TV has done to this world. LOATHE.


http://www.hollywoodlife.com/2012/04...yor-video/?v02

[suliso]

I think I agree, Kirk. It's a tad dramatic. Very Game of Thrones almost. Half way through I was expecting someone to be beheaded.

Imagine if the succession of power in the modern world was still decided like that!


Not that it's so far from it in certain God forgotten places...

[craighickman]

And I'll bet it will be effective.

It's archaic. It won't work. I'd bet lots of folks laugh at it.

[ponchi101]

It's archaic. It won't work. I'd bet lots of folks laugh at it.

I hope you are right, but...
I think you are believing everybody is as discerning as you are. To me, the add is frightening. Exactly what the brainless millions need.
(BTW: One candidate is a moderate christian, the other is a mormon. Who are they going to vote for?)

[craighickman]

I hope you are right, but...
I think you are believing everybody is as discerning as you are. To me, the add is frightening. Exactly what the brainless millions need.
(BTW: One candidate is a moderate christian, the other is a mormon. Who are they going to vote for?)

The ad is overwrought and it takes far too long to make its point. A class in Advertising and Marketing 101 might include it as an example of what not to do. The "brainless millions" you invoke probably won't even watch the whole thing. And even if they did, it would require them to actually read.

[Moose]

Here's a great explanation of why you can toss aside almost every poll taken between now and November, and realize that for Romney to win, there is practically no margin for error. And the three states that will be central to his chances (PA, MI, WI) have not voted R in the past 5 elections:

Mitt Romney’s road to presidency this fall looks narrow on electoral map
By Chris Cillizza, Published: April 29

It’s no secret that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a narrow path to win the presidency this fall. Nowhere is that reality more apparent than when examining the electoral map on which Romney and President Obama will battle in November.

A detailed analysis of Romney’s various paths to the 270 electoral votes he would need to claim the presidency suggests he has a ceiling of somewhere right around 290 electoral votes.

While Romney’s team would absolutely take a 290-electoral-vote victory, that means he has only 20 electoral votes to play with — a paper-thin margin for error.

Romney’s relatively low electoral-vote ceiling isn’t unique to him. No Republican presidential nominee has received more than 300 electoral votes in more than two decades. (Vice President George H.W. Bush won 426 electoral votes in his 1988 victory over Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis.)

By contrast, Bill Clinton in 1992 (370 electoral votes) and 1996 (379) as well as Obama in 2008 (365) soared well beyond the 300-electoral-vote marker.

Much of that is attributable to the fact that Democrats have near-certain wins in population (and, therefore, electoral-vote) behemoths such as California (55 electoral voters), New York (29) and Illinois (20).

The only major electoral-vote treasure trove that is reliably Republican at the moment is Texas, with its 38 electoral votes. So while George W. Bush won 30 states in 2000 and 31 states in 2004, he never came close to cresting the 300-electoral-vote mark in either race.

Bush’s two successful races, and the map on which he built them, are quite instructive when trying to understand Romney’s narrow margin for error this fall.

In 2000, Bush won 271 electoral votes — one more than he needed to claim the presidency. In eking out that victory, Bush not only carried the South and Plains states with a near sweep but also claimed wins in swing states such as Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and the major electoral-vote prizes of Ohio and Florida.

If Romney was able to duplicate Bush’s 2000 map, he would take 285 electoral votes — thanks to redistricting gains over the past decade.

But to do so, Romney would need not only to win the five swing states mentioned above — with the exception of Missouri, all of them are considered tossups (at worst) for the president at the moment — but also hang on to states such as North Carolina and Virginia where Bush cruised 12 years ago. (Obama carried both states in 2008.)

In 2004, Bush won reelection with 286 electoral votes, losing New Hampshire from his 2000 map but adding wins in Iowa and New Mexico.

Under the 2012 map, Romney would win 292 electoral votes if he replicated the Bush 2004 victory. But New Mexico seems like a very tough place to win — not to mention the fact that he would again need to carry Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada as well as North Carolina and Virginia.

Now, the good(ish) news for Romney is that if he has a low ceiling, he also has a relatively high floor.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 173 electoral votes in 2008. If Romney carried those same 22 states under the 2012 map, he would win 180 electoral votes.

Add Indiana, which McCain lost but which will almost certainly go for Romney in 2012, and the former Massachusetts governor’s electoral floor sits at 191.

Given the narrowness of his electoral map window, the key for Romney this fall is to win in places that Bush, McCain and other Republican nominees over the past two decades have struggled to make inroads. No Republican has carried Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Wisconsin (10) in any of the past five elections, for example

Win even one of them and Romney has a bit more flexibility when it comes to getting to 270 — and beyond.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...y.html?hpid=z2

[James7]

I sat and watched that video assuming that it was a joke of some sort. I was still waiting for a punchline or wink by the end.

[shtexas]

The ad is overwrought and it takes far too long to make its point. A class in Advertising and Marketing 101 might include it as an example of what not to do. The "brainless millions" you invoke probably won't even watch the whole thing. And even if they did, it would require them to actually read.

I agree they needed to make their point faster. Too many with short attention spans. You need clear buzz words or phrases or points every minute. Turn on Sean Hannity at any point in his broadcast and he makes sure to work one in each minute. "Obama's war on religion," "class warfare," "Rev. Wright" (still!), etc.

[Kirkus]

It's archaic. It won't work. I'd bet lots of folks laugh at it.

I don't know. They believed John Kerry was a trader rather than a hero.

[Kirkus]

Romney was asked just a little while ago if he would have made the call to get bin Laden. His response, "Even Jimmy Carter would have made that call." LOL.

Someone's been writing for him. That was a pretty good answer.

[Moose]

Romney was asked just a little while ago if he would have made the call to get bin Laden. His response, "Even Jimmy Carter would have made that call." LOL.

Someone's been writing for him. That was a pretty good answer.

Obviously in response to the new ad. He was prepared to answer that question.

I was surprised how hard Arianna Huffington came down on Obama over the ad.

Arianna on Monday criticized the Obama campaign for questioning whether or not Mitt Romney would have killed Osama bin Laden in a recent attack ad.

Appearing on 'CBS This Morning', she said, "Using the Osama bin Laden assassination, killing, the great news that we had a year ago, in order to say basically that Obama did it and Romney might not have done it ... to turn it into a campaign ad is one of the most despicable things you can do."

She compared the ad to one that the Hillary Clinton campaign aired during the 2008 election.

"It's the same thing that HIllary Clinton did with the 3 A.M call, you know, 'you are not ready to ready to be commander-in-chief'," she said.

Discussing the negative effects of such ads, Arianna said, "It's also what makes politicians and political leaders act irrationally when it comes to matter of war, because they're so afraid to be called wimps that they make decisions which are incredibly destructive to the country. I'm sure the president would not have escalated in Afghanistan if he was not as concerned as Democrats are that Republicans are going to use not escalating against them in a campaign."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-t...b_1464156.html

[Ti-Amie]

Romney was asked just a little while ago if he would have made the call to get bin Laden. His response, "Even Jimmy Carter would have made that call." LOL.

Someone's been writing for him. That was a pretty good answer.

I think they shook the etch-a-sketch again. His original response was something to the effect that he thought it was a waste of time and money to pursue OBL.