by, 10-10-2008 at 09:44 PM (7105 Views)
I’ve completed data collection for ATP main draws since 1968.
Years 1969-1971 are lacking some data. But that’s all I’ve got from ATP and ITF sites combined. (* 1968 and some 1969 information was added from TennisArchives site *).
The main problem was to rank non-Grand Slam tournaments. I was using the combination of lineage, prize money and/or draw. For early tournaments prize money is mostly unlisted, therefore I was using the draw instead.
I didn’t have the guts to downgrade early Australian opens, even though prize money and draws were suggesting that this very well could be done. But the principle of lineage prevailed.
Also for the years with excessive number of tournaments (1973-1983) I’ve slightly downgraded rank of non-Slam tournaments in order to even up the amount of points in play available for each player.
Currently only two of my ten components depend on ranking in non-Grand Slam tournaments. Components and their weights are as follows:
1) Non-Slam ranking – 2.0
2) Rated ranking (Slam ranking + non-Slam ranking divided per number of all tournament played) – 2.5
3) Win-loss percentage in non-Slams – 1.5
4) Total matches won in non-Slams – 0.7
5) Total tournaments won – 2.0
6) Ranking in slams – 4.0
7) Longest winning streak – 0.8
8) Share of tournaments won out of all entered – 2.0
9) Total matches won in Slams – 1.4
10)Win-loss percentage in Slams – 2.5
After calculating each component I normalize them, dividing by <maximum - minimum> for considered period. This way normalized value always spreads from 0 to 1.
After normalizing I’m calculating weighted value, multiplying normalized value by weight.
Davis Cup results are reflected in components #3,4 and slightly in #5 – I award the tournament win to the player who was on the winning team in Davis Cup finals and won at least one singles match.
The lists of top 15 by each component and combined:
Federer moved from #7 to #4, bypassing Becker, Sampras and Agassi. Nadal moved from #14 to #13, bypassing Chang. Ashe (basing on additional 1968-69 info) moved from #14 to #13, also bypassing Chang.
Nadal and Federer kept their #1 and #2 positions and even increased their numbers. Djokovic moved from #11 to #6 (no wonder after having such a year). Becker got ahead of Laver (previously there was a glitch in calculations – Davis Cup ties were added to the number of tournaments, therefore denominator in the rated ranking was larger for Davis cup stalwarts and they were unfairly penalized.). Murray got to #13, Newcombe moved out of top 15 – to #16. A big number of small tournaments (added to the database), where he entered in 1968 reduced his rated ranking.
Federer moved one place up – switched places with Laver. Djokovic moved from #15 to #8. Ashe got ahead of Carlsson (due to more 68-69 data).
Nastase moved ahead of JMac to #4; Orantes and Ashe both moved one place up, bypassing Gottfried. Stan Smith bypassed Gottfried and Sampras. All of the above – due to additional 68-69 data. But Federer – bypassing Chang, Dibbs, Becker and Sampras and moving to #12 – is all due to his gain in 2011.
Nastase moved ahead of Vilas and joined Agassi at #7-8 with 62 titles. Laver moved from #11 to #10 (don’t forget this is Open Era only!). Ashe and Stan Smith joined the group of the holders of 44 titles – with Edberg and Muster. Nadal added 4 titles, but kept his place at #12. He is gaining on Becker though.
Federer put a healthy distance between himself and Connors. Nadal moved from #11 to #8.
Djokovic entered the list at position #4!!
Laver got to #1, switching places with Borg. McEnroe got ahead of Lendl (the correction of the glitch in Davis Cup count). Federer moved one place up, switching with Connors (also mostly due to DC correction rather than his 2011 results.) Djokovic moved from #15 to #10.
Federer moved from #4 to #2. Next year, barring injury he will ascend to #1, eclipsing Connors. Nadal moved from #14 to #10. Roddick kept himself relevant, eclipsing Chang and Courier and moving from #16 to #14.
Federer moved from #3 to #4, switching places with Laver. This is what a year without Slam titles does. Djokovic landed at #7 (again – no wonder after such year; let’s see how he will hold up there)
Federer moved from #3 to #2, Nadal gained a lot on Agassi, but kept his place at #8. Djokovic entered top 15 and so far is at #13 (Nastase got bumped out). Laver got ahead of Vilas due to 68-69 data. Ashe got ahead of Nastase and kept his place at top 15.
A graph with career arcs: