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Togtdyalttai
01-16-2020, 07:41 PM
Here's the place to brag up your losers until they start winning. A pick tracker will be uploaded after the first round is complete, and scoreboards will be posted after each round.

Togtdyalttai
01-19-2020, 06:52 PM
A pick tracker has been added at http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Pick-Tracker.htm. Please take a look and make sure I've copied down your picks correctly.

dryrunguy
01-19-2020, 10:22 PM
A pick tracker has been added at http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Pick-Tracker.htm. Please take a look and make sure I've copied down your picks correctly.

I will wait a few days to complain about how my picks were incorrectly copied... to no avail. But I shall, nonetheless, try. Because I'm terrible at this.

Togtdyalttai
01-21-2020, 08:09 PM
In the first round, BHar11 and weefunk came from opposite ends of the alphabet to both score perfect 20s and take an early lead. Scores other than that are so average that there's not much else to say. We'll see if there are more upsets which shake things up in the coming rounds.

Pick Tracker (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Pick-Tracker.htm)
Scoreboard (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Scoreboard.htm)

Togtdyalttai
01-23-2020, 06:59 PM
Jeff in TX leapfrogged the previous round's leaders to make it to the top of the second round scoreboard with 37. Weefunk and BHar11 are now one and three points behind, respectively.

More interesting to some of us who aren't so good at picking losers is that the lowest score at this point is 15. That's a pretty high bottom score overall. I don't think the bottom score has ever reached 20. We shall see if all of us can keep it up in the third round.

Pick Tracker (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Pick-Tracker.htm)
Scoreboard (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Scoreboard.htm)

GlennHarman
01-24-2020, 02:34 AM
While I've been watching tennis, some of it with very disappointing results, I scored the picks we made this time for YCWJ. I have compiled the numbers of times each player was picked. Then, I gave each player points based on the system we use to score YCWJ. A player who was a number 1 pick gets 4 points, a number 2 pick gets 3 points, a number 3 pick gets 2 points, and a number 4 pick gets 1 point. The totals will be listed. We had 36 people who made picks.

The big winner for men was Safwat, who was picked by 15 people and got 37 points. The big winner for women was Sorribes Torno, who was picked by 13 people and got 34 points.

A point of interest was that certain players seem to inspire strong feelings from those who pick them, while others seem to be a WTH pick. For example of the weak feelings, Stebe was picked by 8 people, but no one had him higher than a number 3 pick, so he got 13 points. For strong feelings, Karlovic was picked by 6 people, but 4 of them had him as their number 1. He therefore had 19 points. Moutet, who had the same number of picks (6), only got 9 points, since 4 of his were number 4 picks. On the women's side, some of us apparently felt pretty strongly about Paolini's chances...she was picked on 7 ballots, and she was a number 1 or 2 pick on all 7, to rack up 24 points.

I was surprised at the very large numbers of different picks. 45 men and 49 women were named on a least one ballot.

The players names are followed by 2 numbers. The first number is the number of players who picked, and the 2nd number is the points, calculated as above. For the MEN:

Safwat 15 37
Kwon 11 33
Donskoy 11 28
Duckworth 10 26
Stebe 8 13
Karlovic 6 19
Griekspoor 6 18
Moutet 6 9
Benchetrit 4 14
Smith 4 12
Norrie 4 10
Ivashka 4 8
Gulbis 4 7
Mayer 4 7
Polmans 3 6
Gaston 3 6
Lu 2 8
Bolt 2 8
Bublik 2 7
Uchiyama 2 7
Travaglia 2 6
Thompson 2 6
Cuevas 2 5
Cecchinato 2 5
Berankis 2 5
Tabilo 2 4
Galan Riveros 2 2
Pospisil 1 4
Gerasimov 1 4
Ramos 1 4
Popyrin 1 3
Edmund 1 3
O'Connell 1 3
Barrere 1 3
Seppi 1 3
Carballes Baena 1 3
Ymer 1 2
Garin 1 2
Trungelliti 1 2
Chardy 1 2
Halys 1 1
Purcell 1 1
Andujar 1 1
Verdasco 1 1
Dellien 1 1

I'll list the women in a separate post. GH

GlennHarman
01-24-2020, 02:47 AM
I don't know why it does this, but I had spaced the numbers for the men so that the number were in straight columns to the right of the names. Apparently I didn't do that right. Again the names will be followed by 2 numbers. The first number is the number of players who picked each player, followed by the points, calculated as mentioned in the previous note. Anyway....

The picks of WOMEN:

Sorribes Torno 13 34
Krejcikova 9 24
Stosur 9 22
Paolini 7 24
Rodionova 6 17
Maria 6 16
Brengle 6 13
Stojanovic 5 15
Hon 5 12
Hibino 5 11
Bellis 4 10
McNally 4 9
Cabrera 4 8
Samsonova 3 10
Kr. Pliskova 3 10
Cornet 3 9
Teichman 3 9
Rogers 3 8
Minnen 3 6
Tomljanovic 3 4
Kovinic 2 7
Golubic 2 6
Juvan 2 5
Sharma 2 5
McHale 2 5
Niculescu 2 5
Swiatek 2 5
Kanepi 2 4
Lottner 2 3
Bondarenko 2 3
Rus 2 3
Davis 1 4
Dart 1 4
Han 1 4
Stephens 1 3
Cocciaretto 1 3
Kuzmova 1 3
Flipkens 1 2
Fernandez 1 2
Sharapova 1 2
Kozlova 1 2
Diatchenko 1 2
Suarez Navarro 1 1
Zhu 1 1
Bencic 1 1
Sasnovich 1 1
Boulter 1 1
Garcia 1 1
Y. Wang 1 1

I don't know how interested in this the other YCWJ players will be. For me, this showed me a fair amount about the strategy that we, as a group, seem to use. Of course, never having come close to winning this, I'm sure I still have no idea how to pick these most effectively.

GH

ponchi101
01-24-2020, 08:44 AM
My strategy: pick players that will play against seeded players in the first round, so I would get 20 points. Pick not very high seeded players, otherwise you get 0 points in the second round. So stick to seeded players in the 9-16 category.
You get 20 points in the first round, you have a good chance.
See my score. See how that backfired, terribly.

dollymix
01-24-2020, 09:49 AM
For me, this showed me a fair amount about the strategy that we, as a group, seem to use.

Personally, my "strategy" is pretty much to point randomly at the draw somewhere far away from the top seeds. I put a little more thought into it on the women's side (looking at likely 2R/3R opponents), but rarely much. On the men's side, I basically just look for players I've never heard of.

GlennHarman
01-24-2020, 12:05 PM
So, given my absolute lack of success in this contest over a decade of entering, I have tried various strategies with equal success. I loved Ponchi's comment about using those playing seeded players. One time, I picked almost exactly that way. But I was trying to pick, from those players ranked about 9-16, those I thought would lose in the 2nd round based on some recent result or some other criterion that seemed good that night, and pick their opponent for the first round for YCWJ. Those players, who I thought would get me off to a very good start, decided to lose one round too early, and I was about halfway down the field after one round, and all but out of picks after 2 rounds.

Then there was the time I put all the names in a hat except the top 8 seeds (I told about this in the YCWJ thread). So it was random, omitting those top 8. This strategy was about as effective as the one just above. But after it was over, I had finished toward the bottom.

Weirdly, for all of my lack of success, I have yet to finish dead last in YCWJ. I think I've been next-to-the-last about 5 times.

GH

P.S. to dollymix.....That "look for players I've never heard of" strategy has often been a big part of my strategy....also a failure.

weefunk
01-25-2020, 09:29 AM
You should subtract my WTA picks from your stats... I was running out of time and trying to get my picks in before the deadline, so they were almost random.

Togtdyalttai
01-25-2020, 01:00 PM
"My WTA picks were almost random" weefunk took the lead back in the third round and is the first to hit 50 for this contest. Jeff in TX fell off a bit, but is still in second with 46. GlennHarman had the second best round, but is still 9 points behind our leader.

Cainim is at the opposite end of the scoreboard from last year's AO edition. They secured a share of the wooden spoon for the contest with a not-so-bad 18. Ptmcmahon will also claim his share if Medvedev beats Wawrinka in the fourth round.

Pick Tracker (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Pick-Tracker.htm)
Scoreboard (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Scoreboard.htm)

Togtdyalttai
01-25-2020, 01:00 PM
Thanks for the analysis, Glenn!

ptmcmahon
01-25-2020, 02:52 PM
Ooh ... a potential Amits/YCWJ double last!

Jeff in TX
01-25-2020, 10:24 PM
The wave of women's upsets washed me out on the women's side. Grrr!

Togtdyalttai
01-27-2020, 08:30 PM
Weefunk expanded their lead to 6 points in the fourth round, making it up to 58 points. BHar11 and Jeff in TX are tied for second with 52, but GlennHarman had the highest score of the round with 9 to make it up to fourth.

With Wawrinka's win, Cainim is our only wooden spoon winner. Sorry for denying you the double spoon, ptmcmahon!

Pick Tracker (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Pick-Tracker.htm)
Scoreboard (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Scoreboard.htm)

GlennHarman
01-28-2020, 12:53 AM
I wonder if anyone would know this for sure.....But, I feel almost certain that Cainim's score of 18 points is the highest score for a wooden spoon winner ever. It seems to me that the spoon is usually won with a single-digit number of points, but when it has been a double digit number, it seems certain that it was lower than 18. I have actually failed to win the spoon with a single-digit number before.

It is great fun to be toward the top in this contest for a huge change, since it really is my favorite. There is something about the whole concept of YCWJ that really fits my way of watching the tournament. I pay close attention to it even if I'm out of it and finishing next to last.

GH

ptmcmahon
01-28-2020, 05:48 AM
So the best worst at picking the worst? :)

PeterSkan
01-28-2020, 08:21 AM
"As a 3-time champ of this event, I'm so disappointed in myself at doing so well and being eliminated so soon. Yes - the others are hanging in there, but let's be honest, this is all on my shoulders. It's just so unprofessional. I just can't be winning like that. I can lose better than that. I'm a better loser than that ..."

[from PeterSkan's YCWJ Press Conference after being eliminated in the 4th round]


:)

TennisAnyone74
01-28-2020, 01:26 PM
"As a 3-time champ of this event, I'm so disappointed in myself at doing so well and being eliminated so soon. Yes - the others are hanging in there, but let's be honest, this is all on my shoulders. It's just so unprofessional. I just can't be winning like that. I can lose better than that. I'm a better loser than that ..."

[from PeterSkan's YCWJ Press Conference after being eliminated in the 4th round]


:)

Your profile shows that you have 4 wooden spoons, so you're mistaken! You're a 4-time champ.

TA

PeterSkan
01-28-2020, 02:20 PM
Your profile shows that you have 4 wooden spoons, so you're mistaken! You're a 4-time champ.

TA

See - I can't even get that right ... :(

Or maybe that's a good thing. I'll ask RandomSkan. He'll know!

GlennHarman
01-29-2020, 05:09 AM
Given my usual success at YCWJ, I can't believe I'm even in it to this point. But here is what I think is the situation:

Most scenarios give the win to Wee at this point. Jeff, while still looking to be in it, doesn't appear to have a path to the win, due to having similar picks left to Wee.

I think there is exactly one scenario where I can win: Federer must lose to Djokovic (very likely based on what I've seen) and then Djokovic must lose in the final (much less likely). Also, Kenin must win her semi. If my math is correct, given the bonus points for winning it, and with that being my number 1 men's thread, I think that puts me a bit ahead of Wee. There are all sorts of scenarios left by which Wee wins.

I am by no means sure I've calculated this correctly. But it looks right. GH

Jeff in TX
01-29-2020, 11:28 AM
The WTA chaos did me in. But it is nice to be near the top of the scoreboard. That being said, you have had a great tourney GH. Kudos.

Togtdyalttai
01-29-2020, 06:59 PM
Weefunk still leads through the quarterfinals and is in by far the best position to win. I'll just go through the scenarios where they don't win:

If Djokovic loses in the men's final and someone other than Barty loses in the women's final, GlennHarman will be the winner.

If Zverev loses to Djokovic in the men's final and Kenin beats Barty, Jeff in TX will tie weefunk.

This means that there's theoretically a good chance that, by the end of today, weefunk will have already clinched.

Congratulations to us as well on collectively picking all of the men's semifinalists and two of the women's ones.

Pick Tracker (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Pick-Tracker.htm)
Scoreboard (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Scoreboard.htm)

GlennHarman
01-30-2020, 12:07 AM
This must be some parallel universe. I just got a medal in the women's SP and I still have an outside (very outside in my opinion) shot at this. Kenin's victory over Barty kept both me and Jeff in the chase for something here. But there are far more outcomes that favor Wee. Great fun! GH

weefunk
01-30-2020, 08:17 PM
This must be some parallel universe. I just got a medal in the women's SP and I still have an outside (very outside in my opinion) shot at this. Kenin's victory over Barty kept both me and Jeff in the chase for something here. But there are far more outcomes that favor Wee. Great fun! GH

Yes, Kenin let me down by winning. On the other hand, I only got as far as I did with that pick because Serena lost in the 3rd round, and Q. Wang followed up her blockbuster win by immediately losing.

Good luck to all of us still in the running! I'm rooting for Djokovic to take it all :-)

GlennHarman
01-31-2020, 07:47 AM
So now, I'm rooting for Thiem to take it all. (actually, I would be anyway....not a Djokovic fan at all) I can only finish first or third in this contest, and it's hard to like my chances for first, depending as they do on a really big upset in the final.

GH

Togtdyalttai
01-31-2020, 07:41 PM
Weefunk continues to lead through the semifinals, but there is still a chance for them to be overtaken. GlennHarman will be the champion if Thiem upsets Djokovic in the men's final. Otherwise weefunk will hold on.

If Kenin completes her unlikely run, Monica Niculescu, who was picked by Drop-shot, will be the women's wooden spoon winner. If Muguruza wins, Magda Linette, who no one took, will hold the dubious honor. Mohamed Safwat, who was held by 15 contestants, will be the men's wooden spoon winner if Thiem wins. If Djokovic does, the boobie prize goes to Hugo Gaston, who was picked by three contestants.

Pick Tracker (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Pick-Tracker.htm)
Scoreboard (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Scoreboard.htm)

GlennHarman
02-01-2020, 12:29 AM
As in my lists of picks up-thread, Safwat was picked by more of us than any other player. It would be very poetic if he then wins the wooden spoon. (needless to say, I am in no way feeling that way because that result would also make me win this contest).

In some thread someone gave Thiem a 20% chance of winning. I might even say his chance is less than that. Still, I am delighted to be in this competition going into the men's final....not something I was expecting.

GH

GlennHarman
02-02-2020, 06:17 AM
Congrats, Weefunk!!! When Thiem went up 2 sets to 1, I thought I had a good chance, but it was never to be. I am delighted to have been in this contest to the last day.

I think I'm beginning to see what it takes to win this. I think the best plan is this: One needs to score very high in the first 2 rounds, and then hold on as everyone drops by the wayside. A perfect first round and a near perfect 2nd round will help you go far. So a great strategy would be to pick ones you really think will go 2 rounds and then see what happens.

On the other hand, one can also win by picking the wooden spoon winners and getting all those bonus points at the end. This is harder and requires a bit of luck along the way.

Thanks to Tog and the other organizers. This is always great fun. GH

Jeff in TX
02-02-2020, 10:47 AM
Congratulations Weefunk! Great job! Nice job, too, Glenn.

Togtdyalttai
02-02-2020, 03:25 PM
Congratulations, weefunk! A final recap will follow in a separate thread.

Pick Tracker (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Pick-Tracker.htm)
Scoreboard (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/2020-AO-YCWJ-Scoreboard.htm)

Togtdyalttai
02-02-2020, 05:41 PM
@Glenn I totally sympathize with you. I've been hosting or co-hosting this contest for over 10 years now but have never done too well in it. Then last year at this tournament, I was one set won by Kvitova away from winning myself. This contest is so fickle; just keep at it and you'll be back in the mix eventually.

GlennHarman
02-03-2020, 02:31 AM
Tog, Thanks for the shout-out. I will for sure be participating in this as long as I'm able. I love it. I even love it when I finish next-to-last. I do hope to someday break through and win it, but if not, no big deal.

Thanks again for running it!!!!!!!! GH