View Full Version : 2020 AO Bracket Prediction Challenge

01-16-2020, 07:06 AM
Entry or Revision deadline is the start of tournament play: 11:00AM in Melbourne Australia on Monday the 20th. Note what time that is for you locally.

Entry Form: Deadline Start of play on day one
[Please note there is some delay in placing qualifiers! If you do enter beforehand, please remember to try to revisit and re-submit your bracket once qualifiers are placed so those names show up properly in your entry. Brackets can be edited from the score tracking page before the start of play as long as your cookies are intact/match]
ATP: http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/SlamBracket/bracket.php?tour=ATP&tournament=Australian
WTA: http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/SlamBracket/bracket.php?tour=WTA&tournament=Australian

Picks And Score Tracking:

View ATP Scores: http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/SlamBracket/picks_edit.php?tournament=Australian&tour=ATP
View WTA Scores: http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/SlamBracket/picks_edit.php?tournament=Australian&tour=WTA

What is it?
This is a separate prediction contest for Slam events. Predict the full brackets for ATP and/or WTA events, and earn bonus points in later rounds for guessing or getting close to game totals for matches from the Quarterfinals on. This IS a medal awarding contest. A medal will be awarded to the overall score leader for each WTA and ATP top scorers.

How does it work?
After the bracket is finalized and prior to the first round of play, participants select match winners for the full bracket. Additionally, participants are asked to guess how many games will be played in each of the QF, SF, and finals matches. Brackets for WTA and ATP events are separate.

Points are awarded as follows:
Each correct bracket pick (having the correct player in that part of the draw) awards one point for each slot correctly filled for the first round. The second round results increase to 2 points each, third round 3 points each, and so on. This forms the majority of the overall prediction score.

Bonus points are awarded for how close you come to game totals in each of those matches. This is regardless of who ends up actually contesting them, so you can still earn points here even if your player picks are off.
5 bonus points for getting the exact game count in that match
4 for being within one game
3 for being within 3 games
2 for being within 5 games
and 1 point for being within 7 games
If a retirement takes place, the number of games played until the retirement is the 'correct' answer for that match, and a walkover is treated as playing 0 games.
Prediction and bonus points are added together to form a final score for the event.

There will be a pick tracker so you can follow scoring as it occurs, complete with some plots of the data and breakdowns of choices in real time. Other player picks are not visible to you until after the deadline passes.

What do I need to do to participate?
Nothing beforehand as long as you have a valid TAT account and are logged in.
Entries will need to be made before the start of main draw play and a thread will be up in order to do that at least one day prior to the start of first round play.
Entries may be redone as many times as you like up until the deadline (start of play the first day).

As before, any feedback is welcome.

This thread is intended for discussion and questions regarding the challenge.

Thanks, and good luck to all!

01-16-2020, 07:08 AM
Getting this up a little early as draws are available pre-qualifiers and some like to play around with it in the interim.

Remember that your picks can be EDITED via the score tracker page pre-deadline as long as your cookies match (moving between computers or losing them otherwise would make a new entry).

01-17-2020, 07:13 PM
An issue with the ATP bracket is resolved. Due to the presence of an O'Connell wreaking havoc with the unexpected single quote appearing in a name for the first time. Added ' to the special character handling.

01-18-2020, 06:39 AM
Brackets now have qualifiers

01-18-2020, 07:13 PM
Just about a day left to get entries in. RPB bump.

01-21-2020, 09:45 AM
It's still not quite fully done with R1, but I always like to take a quick look after the first round because it's so interesting to see how predictions go there with many harder to make selections.

For the ATP, which did complete it's R1 as far as I can tell, Arthur Gromko scored a best 50/64 correct match picks. Followed closely by three others just one match behind (dryrunguy, New England Nitemare, and Togtdyalttai). Well done!

For the WTA, Arthur Gromko yet again demonstrated some superiority. 45 out of the 56 that were completed thus far. Slightly better than the ATP prediction rate overall. Holding two better predictions than Jeff in TX and 3 better than dollymix who sit ins second and third, respectively.

Just for fun, added in random selections for each bracket.

TATRandom has selected Basilashvili as eventual ATP champ and local wildcard Priscilla Hon as WTA champion.

01-23-2020, 08:39 AM
Quick update after R2 completed.

Togtdyalttai leads the WTA contest with 99 points.

Both New England Nitemare and Togtdyalttai share the lead on the ATP contest with 95 points.

Best scores for R2 on the WTA end was Tog with 54 out of 64 possible points. Very impressive!

And for the ATP TennisAnyone74 had a round best score of 48 out of 64 possible.

As always, details and further breakdowns are visible in the score tracking pages.

01-27-2020, 05:36 AM
Another quick check in at things pre-QFs.

In the ATP contest both Omegadoom and TennisAnyone74 are tied for the lead. A single point ahead of PeterSkan and the Moz.

Interestingly, R3 and R4 high scores show a number of different names at the top.

In the WTA contest there is no tie, and tolulops has a slight lead over the field.

01-29-2020, 06:29 AM
Updated post-QF.

PeterSkan has taken the lead of the ATP contest.

tolulops and waylandboy-tw share the lead of the WTA contest, but waylandboy in a much better position as one of the few with remaining prediction points available and thus the highest points ceiling of anyone.

01-30-2020, 12:30 AM
I find it interesting, but expected, that the scores for the men's bracket are much higher than the scores for the women's bracket. How could anyone have predicted a Kenin-Muguruza final. Probably a fair number had Barty and Halep in the semis. Still, despite some pretty impressive upsets, the men's side is making far more sense.


01-30-2020, 05:56 AM
No one has any remaining WTA finals points in play except the bonus game count prediction. Which means the winner there will be possibly determined by wether the final is a quicker 2 sets or a longer grind. Waylandboy will be hoping for something closer to 27 games, while tolulops will be hoping for closer to 18. Togtdyalttai might be able to sneak in with exactly 20 games to share a victory with tolulops. But only with that exact game count.

My possibly wrong math suggests the outcome is the following:

15-21 games in the final: tolulops wins
20 games exactly: Togtdyalttai ties as well
Anything else: Waylandboy wins

01-31-2020, 05:56 AM
Looking at the ATP now with the conclusion of the semifinals, it looks like the contest there is effectively over.

Most people selected Djokovic to take the title, so there will be no real movement based on outcome. And with PeterSkan getting a bonus-prohibitive lead of 6 points (max 5 bonus points for perfect game count prediction), he should maintain the lead regardless of games played without even needing to look at selections there.


I'll also take the moment to give a pat on the back to PeterSkan, Douglow and jatagen, who all correctly predicted the final before the first ball of the tournament was ever struck. A smaller thumbs up also to JCR14 who also had Thiem correctly in the final (but facing Tsitsipas instead). Nice gamble.

02-02-2020, 05:33 AM
And we are finished.

Congratulations to WTA winner waylandboy-tw

And Congratulations to ATP winner PeterSkan

02-02-2020, 06:57 AM
Thanks for running this. Came 2nd last on the WTA side, so I'm under no illusion that I've got this figured out. But it's been a couple of years since my last medal, so I'm certainly pleased about that!

I'm tempted to set up an entry for RandomSKAN at the French and see how he does against TATRandom. I expect him to be somewhat indifferent about it!

the Moz
02-02-2020, 11:06 AM
Congrats to the winners and thank you James for all your efforts :)

02-02-2020, 05:15 PM
Congratulations to you both! Your medals have been awarded!