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View Full Version : USO 2019 Bracket Prediction Challenge



James7
08-23-2019, 05:43 PM
Start of play deadline is the start of tournament play: 11:00AM in New York on Monday the 26th of August. Note what time that is for you locally.


Entry Form: Deadline Start of play on day one
(Bracket May change slightly with late withdraws, etc. Updating an entry may be performed in the Score tracking page ahead of start of actual play as long as browser cookies match the original entry.)


ATP: http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/SlamBracket/bracket.php?tour=ATP&tournament=US
WTA: http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/SlamBracket/bracket.php?tour=WTA&tournament=US

Picks And Score Tracking:

View ATP Scores: http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/SlamBracket/picks_edit.php?tournament=US&tour=ATP
View WTA Scores: http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/SlamBracket/picks_edit.php?tournament=US&tour=WTA


What is it?
This is a separate prediction contest for Slam events. Predict the full brackets for ATP and/or WTA events, and earn bonus points in later rounds for guessing or getting close to game totals for matches from the Quarterfinals on. This IS a medal awarding contest. A medal will be awarded to the overall score leader for each WTA and ATP top scorers.

How does it work?
After the bracket is finalized and prior to the first round of play, participants select match winners for the full bracket. Additionally, participants are asked to guess how many games will be played in each of the QF, SF, and finals matches. Brackets for WTA and ATP events are separate.


Points are awarded as follows:
Each correct bracket pick (having the correct player in that part of the draw) awards one point for each slot correctly filled for the first round. The second round results increase to 2 points each, third round 3 points each, and so on. This forms the majority of the overall prediction score.

Bonus points are awarded for how close you come to game totals in each of those matches. This is regardless of who ends up actually contesting them, so you can still earn points here even if your player picks are off.
5 bonus points for getting the exact game count in that match
4 for being within one game
3 for being within 3 games
2 for being within 5 games
and 1 point for being within 7 games
If a retirement takes place, the number of games played until the retirement is the 'correct' answer for that match, and a walkover is treated as playing 0 games.
Prediction and bonus points are added together to form a final score for the event.

There will be a pick tracker so you can follow scoring as it occurs, complete with some plots of the data and breakdowns of choices in real time. Other player picks are not visible to you until after the deadline passes.

What do I need to do to participate?
Nothing beforehand as long as you have a valid TAT account and are logged in.
Entries will need to be made before the start of main draw play and a thread will be up in order to do that at least one day prior to the start of first round play.
Entries may be redone as many times as you like up until the deadline (start of play the first day).

As before, any feedback is welcome.

This thread is intended for discussion and questions regarding the challenge.

Thanks, and good luck to all!

James7
08-23-2019, 05:44 PM
WTA qualifiers don't appear to be placed quite yet.

patrick
08-24-2019, 07:25 AM
As of now, WTA qualifiers have not been placed in draw.

James7
08-24-2019, 08:18 AM
Thanks. Updated entry forms.

Good luck!

James7
08-25-2019, 04:54 AM
Bumping back onto the feed.

dryrunguy
08-25-2019, 07:12 PM
Bumpity...

James7
08-26-2019, 04:59 AM
Last chance to enter!

James7
08-28-2019, 05:21 AM
Quick round 1 update:

Dryrunguy and Omegadoom scored an ATP best with 44/64 matches correctly picked. There are a lot of players right on their heels, however. The median score for the first round appears to be about 39 or 40.

WTA appears to have been easier to predict in the first round. Omegadoom leads with 48/64 matches correctly picked. Median score there appears to be either 43 or 44. Well, maybe not easier for dryrunguy. ;)

mysterX
08-28-2019, 01:50 PM
I had picked Kevin Anderson to win round 1 but to lose in round 2 to Kecmanovic. After he withdrew, I didn't change the pick to Lorenzi because I still expected him to win the R1 match. I see that it cost me a point in the scoring.

I guess this means it is not enough to pick the spot in the draw but the actual player who wins the match. I need to remember that in the future.

James7
09-04-2019, 06:09 AM
Just checking in on the standings after half the QFs and a few more upsets.

Dryrunguy and fastbackss are tied at the head of the ATP pack, but only have a 2 point lead over a few others.

Drop-shot and Omegadoom are similarly tied at the top of the WTA, and also have a mere 2 point lead over the next person in line.

Max WTA score right now is 141, as opposed to the more modest ATP score of 118.

A theoretical perfect bracket at this point would be worth 218 points.

Drop-shot
09-04-2019, 07:40 AM
This won't last. I had Halep winning.

James7
09-08-2019, 06:28 PM
Congratulations to fastbackss for winning the ATP contest and Omegadoom for winning the WTA.

Follow up comments tomorrow.

dryrunguy
09-08-2019, 07:07 PM
Congratulations to fastbackss and Omegadoom! Your medals have been awarded!

GlennHarman
09-09-2019, 01:56 AM
Congrats to the winners. I'm jealous! I got the highest number of bonus points in the WTA bracket and still finished well into the bottom half of all contestants. So it goes. GH

James7
09-09-2019, 09:51 AM
Some general stats because they can be fun to look at:

Highest Bonus score:
ATP - vexchaps with 18
WTA - GlennHarman with 21

Highest Year total:
Omegadoom in both the ATP and WTA with 670 and 604, respectively.
Vexchaps got the highest year ATP bonus total with 42. Omegadoom got the highest WTA bonus total with 60.

Average tournament score for all participants year-round:
ATP - 149.2
WTA - 133.3

Average score per round for the year:
ATP R1: 44.3 (out of 64)
ATP R2: 36.4 (64)
ATP R3: 25.7 (48)
ATP R4: 14.1 (32)
ATP QF: 10.0 (20)
ATP SF: 7.2 (12)
ATP F: 4.2 (7)

WTA R1: 43.2 (64)
WTA R2: 38.1 (64)
WTA R3: 23.2 (48)
WTA R4: 11.3 (32)
WTA QF: 4.2 (20)
WTA SF: 2.1 (12)
WTA F: 0.2 (7)

Average Bonus scoring for the year:
ATP : 7.3
WTA : 10.9

Average number of real games for all 2019 QF-on Slam matches:
ATP : 35.25 (High 68 ; Low 12)
WTA : 21.75 (High 35 ; Low 13)



Generally as roughly expected: ATP ended up being a little more easy to predict in terms of results vs the WTA. Few people predicted any of the WTA champs. More than half predicted ATP champs.

Conversely, the best of 3 game counts were easier to guess vs the best of 5. Interestingly, the ATP had a wider overall spread including a lower minimum thanks to a retirement (QF1 of the Aussie). The WTA average comes close to expecting a straight-sets victory with roughly one break of serve each, whereas the ATP is closer to 3-and-a-half sets with 1 break each.

If anyone is interesting in other stats, please hit me up or feel free to mine it yourself from the results pages for this year (prior year tables are archived and no longer live).

James7
09-09-2019, 10:51 AM
I would like to float a small change for next year past everyone:

What's the general thoughts about turning the bonus scoring into a tie-break only deal?

I had wanted initially to have some mid-tournament inputs to add some degree of interest beyond a flat bracket prediction that exists in multiple places. The game guesses on original conception were to be given when matchups were decided, for example. Making a slightly more "active" contest. But that proved a bit too challenging to implement, plus the expectation of short timeframe feedback (before play on a given day) from participants is probably unrealistic.

I was unsure if these late possible "mix-ups" with score activity added any real interest, or were rather just a source of frustration.

So I'd like to hear from the player base here about wether to relegate bonus scoring into a tie-break only flavor deal, or to leave it as-is. Thanks!

ptmcmahon
09-09-2019, 11:50 AM
I never put any second thought into game predictions. Usually by the time we are at the round where we start doing the game predictions, only a few people are left in, so not sure if the game bonuses really make any difference or not... have they altered any final standings yet?

GlennHarman
09-09-2019, 11:55 AM
I have no strong feelings on this subject. BUT, I would slightly favor leaving it as it is, mostly speaking as someone who always does abysmally on this contest. Having the bonus points actually counting gives me something to look forward to when I am already certain to finish way down the list. I am pretty sure it doesn't usually determine the winner (look at me), but it does keep me in suspense about how I'll finish up to the end.

GH

James7
09-09-2019, 12:07 PM
I never put any second thought into game predictions. Usually by the time we are at the round where we start doing the game predictions, only a few people are left in, so not sure if the game bonuses really make any difference or not... have they altered any final standings yet?

The majority of the time, no. But it has changed the winner a few times from a player with the highest non-bonus score during the couple years I ran it in this configuration. Which is why I'm wondering.

the Moz
09-09-2019, 03:08 PM
Well done on your victories fastbackss & Omegadoom!

Thank you James as always for your efforts with BPC. Very much appreciated :)

As for the possible scoring change, I'm fine keeping things as is. If you can reasonably guesstimate total games played in matches that are over a week from happening then that truly is a bonus to be rewarded.

mysterX
09-09-2019, 10:35 PM
I would vote to make the bonus scoring a tie breaker. To me, the contest is about picking the players who will be winning the matches. It always seemed a little bit off to me that a player who correctly picked a semi-finalist could get no more points from that pick than someone else who did not have either quarter-finalist correctly picked, but stumbled into picking the correct number of games for a match being played by other players. It is fine as a tie-breaker, but not a primary component of the final score.

GlennHarman
09-10-2019, 01:23 AM
I am fine with whatever you decide, and will definitely keep entering. I liked mysterX's use of the word "stumbled". If I ever win a bracket challenge, it will be because I "stumbled" into it, whether the game totals count or not. GH

fastbackss
09-10-2019, 08:24 PM
Hmm. I need to noodle on this, and maybe look at some different scenarios.

Perhaps number of sets instead of number of games? And if you get the number of sets correct you get a bonus point? It would provide some differentiation but not a lot?

Perhaps lessen the reward for the points?

Only count points if the match is scored correctly?

I am sure there are others I could come up with...but I will stop here for now

GlennHarman
09-11-2019, 05:41 AM
One comment.....you all do a wonderful job running these contests, especially considering the pay you receive. So I'll be happy with whatever you decide, though I continue to favor slightly leaving it exactly as it is.

GH

Omegadoom
09-16-2019, 12:26 AM
Yay, and congrats to Fastbackss! Thank you James for running this contest! :thumbsup: