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View Full Version : Predictions : Week of 042219



patrick
04-21-2019, 01:43 PM
This contest is closed to new participants. If you participated in the contest since January 1,2010 or you signed up on or before Monday December 31,2018 you are eligible to participate.

We have four events to predict this week. The ATP is playing at Barcelona and Budapest while the WTA is playing at Istanbul and Stuttgart.

ATP BRACKETS

Barcelona : http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/pc2019/brackets/042219ATPBARCELONA.htm Predictions are due before play starts on Thursday at 11 AM local(USA: 5 AM EDT - 2 AM PDT)

Budapest : http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/pc2018/brackets/042219ATPBUDAPEST.htm (http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/pc2019/brackets/042219ATPBUDAPEST.htm) Predictions are due before play starts on Thursday at 11 AM local (USA: 5 AM EDT - 2 AM PDT)

WTA BRACKETS

Istanbul : http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/pc2019/brackets/042219WTAISTANBUL.htm Predictions are due before play starts on Wednesday at 11 AM local (USA: 4 AM EDT - 1 AM PDT)

Stuttgart : http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/pc2019/brackets/042219WTASTUTTGART.htm Predictions are due before play starts on Thursday at 11:30 AM local (USA: 5:30 AM EDT - 2:30 AM PDT)


Dates and time are subject to change

After the deadlines pass, you will be able to find everyone's picks at:
http://www.talkabouttennis.com/contests/pc2019/results/042219allpicks.htm

atlpam
04-23-2019, 01:53 PM
Bump - Budapest says it has a Thursday deadline, but it looks like it's ready for picks now (only 2 matches remain from round of 16)

texasniteowl
04-23-2019, 03:16 PM
Istanbul bracket? Currently due in less than 10 hours? Bracket seems a bit of a mess, for example: One of the drop downs has Siniakova vs Kuzmova....but Siniakova lost ot Rybakina and Kuzmova lost to Strycova.

patrick
04-23-2019, 03:37 PM
Bump - Budapest says it has a Thursday deadline, but it looks like it's ready for picks now (only 2 matches remain from round of 16)

Only 2 2nd round matches are scheduled for Wednesday; therefore, the Thursday deadline.

PeterSkan
04-23-2019, 07:09 PM
Surely we are not predicting Istanbul in a few hours. The bracket doesn't seem to correspond to the match results.

texasniteowl
04-23-2019, 10:00 PM
Looks like the bracket has been updated!

ptmcmahon
04-23-2019, 10:13 PM
Second time in three weeks this has happened...I get that we're busy with real life so can be tough to get brackets pickable, and that's fine.. But if the brackets are unpickable just hours before deadline...shouldn't deadline be extended to be fair? I only was able to get to this one today because I am starting work at 2 AM local today.

At the very least, when it is updated can whoever updates at least post that? Two weeks ago I had to just keep refreshing until it got updated...if someone had posted that they had fixed deadline would've saved the constant refreshing.

PeterSkan
04-24-2019, 07:01 AM
Surely we are not predicting Istanbul in a few hours. The bracket doesn't seem to correspond to the match results.

Not happy that the deadline for Istanbul has passed and it will go down for me as a missed event. I have a few concerns. My question/observation above above wasn't answered. I wonder, then, how much time was actually available between when the bracket was corrected and updated and the deadline for entry. I would like to know that and for that to be posted.

I refreshed multiple times without seeing any change to the bracket. I checked the Live Scores results through TAT right to the end of yesterday's play and wrote down them down to try to make provisional picks, but could not correlate them to the bracket structure that TAT had on line. Many of the bracket lines simply had "Q" listed. So it didn't make sense to me to try to post a provisional entry at that time.

IMHO, if correct brackets aren't available 8 hours [a reasonable night's sleep] before the deadline, the event should be taken off the books. Otherwise, it doesn't appear to me that there is an even playing field in terms of participating in the event, and the resulting benefits, which strikes me as unfair and out of character with TAT's principles.

I appreciate the hard work and diligence that goes into the contest, but I'm disappointed in this case. Thanks for listening.

ptmcmahon
04-24-2019, 07:33 AM
If it was updated when Texasniteowl posted, then we had 4 hours...all after midnight for anyone in eastern North America. I was lucky I was working early today I guess.

(PS Glad to hear someone else voicing an opinion about this... when I mentioned it two weeks ago no one else said a word at all and was worried no one else had any issues with it.)

PeterSkan
04-24-2019, 08:25 AM
If it was updated when Texasniteowl posted, then we had 4 hours...all after midnight for anyone in eastern North America. I was lucky I was working early today I guess.

(PS Glad to hear someone else voicing an opinion about this... when I mentioned it two weeks ago no one else said a word at all and was worried no one else had any issues with it.)

Miles had posted the following suggestion back in December to deal with this:

"I wish we would at least try a standard deadline every week since most players seem to be in North America anyway. It would eliminate the missed deadline problem. And it should create less work for the mods, and would add a fun twist to the contest since at times matches might still be in progress while we are predicting them, and at other times weather could wreak havoc on the draw and we wind up predicting R-32. Sometimes it’s just fun to mix it up. And I say this as someone who does well in the yearly predictions with the current format."

I guess there are pros and cons to any model, but I do like the idea of something more consistent. If we can't get an event up in time for whatever reason then maybe it's not worth including. Otherwise we could have standings that reflect last minute johnny-on-the-spot entries for lesser tournaments with marginal players/Q vs Q matches.

Thoughts?

James7
04-24-2019, 10:24 AM
I can't tell you an exact time I updated it. It was yesterday sometime around 7pm Eastern or so. Right after I saw texasniteowls 6pm post. I guess that puts it about 9 hours before the deadline.

James7
04-24-2019, 10:29 AM
I have an auto - refreshing tool prepared, but it's tied to the closing tool as it stops then then closes the bracket. The issue lies when a deadline changes or is unclear. I fell out of the habit of using it due to a couple times where a deadline shifted and a bracket "closed" early as a result. Causing a few instances of mini-outcry some may recall.

Miles
04-24-2019, 10:52 AM
I can't tell you an exact time I updated it. It was yesterday sometime around 7pm Eastern or so. Right after I saw texasniteowls 6pm post. I guess that puts it about 9 hours before the deadline.

Let's be realistic, for people in EST, that's about four hours since most folks with regular jobs probably aren't up too late into the evening on a weeknight. Atlantic Time is one hour ahead of EST, so someone there would have even less time, you know, unless they didn't start working until 2am.

So your suggestion that we all had nine hours is a bit misleading.

Miles
04-24-2019, 10:54 AM
I don't understand why, in these situations, it's so difficult to just shift the deadline a day (or whatever) just to level the playing field.

Is it better to have a contest where everyone is able to get picks in, or one where the outcome is decided by missed deadlines?

ptmcmahon
04-24-2019, 11:07 AM
Let's be realistic, for people in EST, that's about four hours since most folks with regular jobs probably aren't up too late into the evening on a weeknight. Atlantic Time is one hour ahead of EST, so someone there would have even less time, you know, unless they didn't start working until 2am.

:) Hey I resemble that remark. It might be my own personal TAT time zone? (Do we have any South Americans on TAT in that time zone?)

I agree that the fair thing would seem to be to shift the deadline a day if there is a delay in getting brackets ready - is there any reason not to do that? We'd get more freebies than normal sure, but it's not like that would cause any actual issues. For the James and Patricks and other admins that should ease the "pressure" if there are any delays so seems like win-win to me.

There is little more deflating than missing a predictions deadline - it's a nearly year long contest and you can spend weeks making sure you get your picks in at random hours of the day/several days, only to wind up missing one deadline which could be enough to cost you. Me and Suliso had a year long battle for ATP a couple of years ago decided by the very last match of the year in the ATP Final. If I had lost from missing a deadline ... it would've been very annoying.

PeterSkan
04-24-2019, 11:11 AM
I can't tell you an exact time I updated it. It was yesterday sometime around 7pm Eastern or so. Right after I saw texasniteowls 6pm post. I guess that puts it about 9 hours before the deadline.

Thanks, James - well my post last night was just after 10:00 p.m. Eastern time, my refresh still showed no update to the bracket.

I agree with Miles. I don't think the playing field was level in this case.

James7
04-24-2019, 12:02 PM
Thanks, James - well my post last night was just after 10:00 p.m. Eastern time, my refresh still showed no update to the bracket.

I agree with Miles. I don't think the playing field was level in this case.

I was in bed before 9, so... it HAD to be before then. ;)

Miles
04-24-2019, 12:09 PM
I was in bed before 9, so... it HAD to be before then. ;)

Oh so you didn't quite have nine hours before the deadline either. :cheesy:

tenedab
04-24-2019, 05:37 PM
Just to clarify the timeline. I did it at 7:48pm EDT as per confirmation email and it was fine.

kandi
04-24-2019, 08:57 PM
In my humble opinion, it would be very NICE to get more freebies -- we should have a set later deadline and let the freebies fall where they fall.

ptmcmahon
04-25-2019, 04:57 AM
Well, having more freebies doesn't make it more fair, it just artificially would increase everyone's score. I'd rather not get a single freebie all year but have brackets that are pickable more than a few hours in advance of the deadline. But if deadlines need to be extended to give a fair amount of time, I don't see any reason why not to - if there are more freebies, like I said - it's just going to artificially increase everyone's scores...so what? :)

PeterSkan
04-25-2019, 08:03 AM
Well, having more freebies doesn't make it more fair, it just artificially would increase everyone's score. I'd rather not get a single freebie all year but have brackets that are pickable more than a few hours in advance of the deadline. But if deadlines need to be extended to give a fair amount of time, I don't see any reason why not to - if there are more freebies, like I said - it's just going to artificially increase everyone's scores...so what? :)

Freebies don't inflate "everyone's" score, only the scores of those who get their entries in by the deadline. Those that meet the deadline are equally rewarded by the freebies, so for them they are neutral and the opportunities to make gains in the standings from the tournament is reduced to non-freebie matches. Nevertheless, if freebies come about as a result of establishing a deadline with more reasonable notice, then they are an outcome of attempts to leveling the playing field, increasing the probability for "everyone" to be equally rewarded by the freebies. If everyone does get their entry in as a result, the "artificial" inflation of scores is immaterial, and therefore a non-issue, because all are rewarded in equal measure. The potential of the tournament to present differential gains is reduced, which for me is a reasonable outcome ... particularly for lesser tournaments populated by lower ranked players.

To completely neutralize the effect of freebies on year-long scores, you can either remove them from scoring for that tournament or award the points even to those who didn't get entries in.

In any event, the issue is not about freebies but about having deadlines with reasonable notice. Freebies may or may not enter the picture, and when they do they have minimal impact.

I'm still intrigued by Miles' proposal to have a fixed deadline each week. Pros and cons?

James7
04-25-2019, 08:05 AM
Let's be honest. No matter when a deadline is, some will miss it at various points over the year. It's almost inevitable.

Qualifiers getting placed and withdraws occurring make draws mutable well into actual play. We do our best but are people volunteering our time unpaid here. I spent a considerable chunk of time to create a system that gave us entry forms at all ahead of time, even if they are imperfect. There were many, many cases where there would be nothing at all until a few hours ahead of time vs a "wrong" dropdown.

There had been talk in the past of changing a scoring system to allow for missed tournaments (ala ATP/WTA rankings; best of X tier tournaments, all slams, masters, etc). I can see who that would be attractive. I can also see how rewarding a complete full performance is also something that shouldn't be necessarily ignored, either. But it's something to consider to make the hiccups less punishing.

Just as it's hard to make entries year round, please don't ignore that it's at least equally hard to maintain the forms, scoring, and run the contest at all year round either.

ptmcmahon
04-25-2019, 10:12 AM
Just as it's hard to make entries year round, please don't ignore that it's at least equally hard to maintain the forms, scoring, and run the contest at all year round either.

I'm not ignoring this at all. I'm saying if there is a week where form isn't ready close to original deadline, extend the deadline a day! How would that not be easier for everyone running the contest? Gives you guys more time to get it ready and everyone a fair chance to pick. We appreciate you running this and I don't see how this suggestion wouldn't make it easier for you. :)

Miles
04-25-2019, 10:38 AM
I'm not ignoring this at all. I'm saying if there is a week where form isn't ready close to original deadline, extend the deadline a day! How would that not be easier for everyone running the contest? Gives you guys more time to get it ready and everyone a fair chance to pick. We appreciate you running this and I don't see how this suggestion wouldn't make it easier for you. :)

Indeed, none of the suggestions/solutions being offered would actually make the Mods life more difficult. All of them would make it easier.

Long ago I suggested if there was any way of tweaking the system so that once the draw is set, it sends out an email saying picks are ready to be made, and here is the deadline.

Long ago I also suggested that once a deadline is posted, you can't move it to any earlier, unless there was an email notification in place.

The yearly prediction challenge is a lot of work for the mods - absolutely no doubt about that. It is also a lot of work and dedication for the participates to get in picks every week. So why screw people when unusual circumstances arise? And this was absolutely an unusual circumstance since the players in the draw were moved around and no longer matched what was on the initial form used for picks.

James7
04-25-2019, 12:10 PM
Indeed, none of the suggestions/solutions being offered would actually make the Mods life more difficult. All of them would make it easier.

Long ago I suggested if there was any way of tweaking the system so that once the draw is set, it sends out an email saying picks are ready to be made, and here is the deadline.


This is contradictory. In the request you ask for a whole additional per-tournament timer to maintained to go off when play ends at any tournament. To differentiate between a refreshed bracket versus a finalized one, and to spam out emails to be kept in a curated list of active contest participants.

It's hard enough to go through to see when order of play containing QF determining matches will occur. Please don't ask us to watch when match play ends at every tournament in the year to boot.

ptmcmahon
04-25-2019, 12:14 PM
Anything contradictory about my suggestion? If something comes up, extend the deadline a day while bracket is being fixed anyway?

PeterSkan
04-25-2019, 06:16 PM
Let's be honest. No matter when a deadline is, some will miss it at various points over the year. It's almost inevitable.

Precisely! That's certainly my experience. Therefore, anything that can be done to minimize that is appreciated. In cases where the mods are struggling to correctly populate the bracket, or other circumstances delay the progress of matches at a tournament, I suggest it's preferable to defer the deadline rather than provide a limited window for entries to be posted. The guiding objective should be to maximize participation.

If for some reason that can't be accommodated, at the very least a note could be posted to the prediction thread advising that the bracket is being worked on and will be refreshable as at X O'Clock EST.

In any event, the efforts of the mods to run the Contest are appreciated. In my view the current discussion is a reflection of how much the Contest and the work of the mods are valued.

dave g
04-25-2019, 07:16 PM
My Opinion

The Original Problem (my interpretation):
The original problem is limited time between the last match of Day A (the day before the picks are due) is finished before the start of the first match of Day B (the day that picks are due). This problem arises from two facts. 1) This is the only contest where picks due during the middle of the tournament and not due before the tournament begins. This means that this is the only contest that is affected by the limited time between the last match of one day and the start of the first match of the next day. The original problem is getting the brackets updated with the results from Day A early enough for everybody to make their picks. This limited time can combine with James7's schedule to reduce this limited time even further.

Proposed solutions that I do not think solve the problem:
1) Create a standard deadline: If we created a standard deadline, such as 10:00 a.m. US eastern time, then when Wimbledon comes around, the deadline will be at 3:00 p.m. GMT, which means some of Day B's matches will be finished and some of the other matches will be in progress. Therefore, to be able to have the most up to date results in the brackets, picks will need to not be made before 2:55 p.m. GMT. This means there will be even less time to make the picks than currently. Note: almost no matter what deadline we pick, there will be a tournament sometime, someplace that will be having matches play during the deadline. In my opinion, this solution not only does not solve the problem, but actually makes the problem worse.
2) Delay the deadline a day: If we move the deadline to before the start of matches on Day C, then we will need to make sure that the brackets are updated with the results of Day B, and the same problem exists. So, I don't think this solves the problem, but only delays the problem.

Solutions that I think might work:
3) Individual manual updating: What I am currently doing is opening the bracket in one window and opening LiveScores for Day A in another window, going through the parts of the bracket that have more that one name in the pull down box and picking the correct name. This has several drawbacks such as it is tedious, solves the problem for only one person, and won't work for people whose browser will not permit them to have the two windows open at the same time.
4) Group updating: The problem caused by the limited time between the end of play on Day A and the beginning of play on Day B can't be fixed by us. However, we might be able to do something about the interaction between this limited time and James7's schedule. My suggestion is that we get a group of people with permission to run James7's update-and-close script. Then, theoretically, the person with the schedule that works with the end of play on Day A can run the update-and-close script earlier that fits in James7's schedule, and everyone would have more time to make their picks. For example, if Day A play ends at 3:00 US eastern time, but James7 doesn't have time to run the script until 7:00 US eastern, perhaps someone else could run the script at 3:30 US eastern time. This would require a group of people willing to commit to running the script when the tournament play matches their schedule. This would probably work best if we had people from fairly different time zones like Europe and Asia or Australia. Since I am retired, I could take on some of this, but it would be too much for just me. So, we would need more people. Note: I have not discussed this with James7 or patrick, so I don't know if they are OK with this idea, nor do I know if this would even work with James7's scripts.

ptmcmahon
04-25-2019, 08:55 PM
My Opinion

The Original Problem (my interpretation):
The original problem is limited time between the last match of Day A (the day before the picks are due) is finished before the start of the first match of Day B (the day that picks are due). This problem arises from two facts. 1) This is the only contest where picks due during the middle of the tournament and not due before the tournament begins. This means that this is the only contest that is affected by the limited time between the last match of one day and the start of the first match of the next day. The original problem is getting the brackets updated with the results from Day A early enough for everybody to make their picks. This limited time can combine with James7's schedule to reduce this limited time even further.


This isn't really the problem. The bracket is usually available before the end of Day A and we can make our picks - all possible players are selectable. We aren't waiting for results to be entered - we can look those up ourselves and pick. I think most of us already doing your "solution 3."

The problem is when the draw winds up changing because of a withdrawal (for example) - and then players wind up in different parts of the draw. In that case we can't make completely valid picks - players are now selectable in wrong part of the draw. In that case your solution 2 should be ok - once the draw on the predictions form is re-done we can make our picks. It won't get changed again before day C.

My proposal is simply "the draw changed, we had to re-do the form so the deadline has been extended because there wasn't a fair enough amount of time to make picks." The only "extra work" needed is to change the deadline date on the post. It seems a pretty simple solution with no extra work to me - someone had to go in and fix the form either way.

James7
04-26-2019, 05:33 AM
Since this is mainly a fringe issue with draw change and I'm not always on the forums a simple solution would be to shoot me an email in the rare cases where it happens to arise. PM on forums are a much less reliable way to reach me in timely fashion as it requires me to be actively browsing the forums to receive it.

James7
04-26-2019, 05:39 AM
Refresh if needed to view picks, BTW.

ptmcmahon
04-26-2019, 06:41 AM
Since this is mainly a fringe issue with draw change and I'm not always on the forums a simple solution would be to shoot me an email in the rare cases where it happens to arise. PM on forums are a much less reliable way to reach me in timely fashion as it requires me to be actively browsing the forums to receive it.

I've also noticed lately that I don't get the new PM popup despite "Show New Private Message Notification Pop-up" being checked so I miss my PMs for days too. So I agree that is not reliable.

Is there somewhere we can find your email if we do need to email you? You are right that these are rare... it's happened 2 times in last 3 (or 4) weeks though so that's why there is the extra attention me thinks.

James7
04-26-2019, 06:51 AM
I've also noticed lately that I don't get the new PM popup despite "Show New Private Message Notification Pop-up" being checked so I miss my PMs for days too. So I agree that is not reliable.

Is there somewhere we can find your email if we do need to email you? You are right that these are rare... it's happened 2 times in last 3 (or 4) weeks though so that's why there is the extra attention me thinks.

I'll PM it.

ptmcmahon
04-26-2019, 07:28 AM
But... PM IS unreliable! :)

Of course, it made a liar out of me and gave me the pop up this time. So next time - if I notice the draw re-change issue - I'll send email. Of course, this week due to work schedule I didn't see it until it was actually fixed so may need others who are able to bug ya. Watch there be no re-draws for months now (which would be fine with me.)