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View Full Version : UPDATED 2018 Men's FOSP Picks & Results Thread



munchin
06-02-2018, 12:32 PM
Congratulations! You've survived the devastation of the first week. Can you go all the way? As always, when you're red, you're dead.

aidsasis - Lucas POUILLE - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Mischa ZVEREV - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Richard GASQUET - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

blaker414 - Gael MONFILS - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Elias YMER - Lucas POUILLE - Borna CORIC - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

blomgren - Federico DELBONIS - Diego SCHWARTZMAN - Denis SHAPOVALOV - Gael MONFILS - Borna CORIC - Dominic THIEM - John ISNER - David GOFFIN

bluereggie - Damir DZUMHUR - Albert RAMOS-VINOLAS - Marton FUCSOVICS - Fernando VERDASCO - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

Bmoney316 - Fernando VERDASCO - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Marton FUCSOVICS - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Albert RAMOS-VINOLAS - Dominic THIEM - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

BouchardBoiledEggs - Pablo CARRENO BUSTA - John ISNER - Kevin ANDERSON - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Borna CORIC - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

calvin_hobbes29 - Gael MONFILS - Karen KHACHANOV - Marton FUCSOVICS - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Richard GASQUET - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

derosa132000 - Damir DZUMHUR - Karen KHACHANOV - Elias YMER - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Richard GASQUET - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

Federex - Gael MONFILS - Karen KHACHANOV - Kyle EDMUND - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Borna CORIC - Kei NISHIKORI - Kevin ANDERSON - David GOFFIN

flowerchild39 - Damir DZUMHUR - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Marton FUCSOVICS - Grigor DIMITROV - John ISNER - Kei NISHIKORI - Kevin ANDERSON - Alexander ZVEREV - Diego SCHWARTZMAN - Novak DJOKOVIC

g2gaynor - Gael MONFILS - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Marton FUCSOVICS - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Richard GASQUET - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - Novak DJOKOVIC - Kevin ANDERSON

gacritter - Damir DZUMHUR - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Marton FUCSOVICS - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Richard GASQUET - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

gracie - Fernando VERDASCO - Albert RAMOS-VINOLAS - Denis SHAPOVALOV - Damir DZUMHUR - Richard GASQUET - Kei NISHIKORI - Kevin ANDERSON - David GOFFIN

Jon D'oh - Pablo CARRENO BUSTA - John ISNER - Kyle EDMUND - Lucas POUILLE - Diego SCHWARTZMAN - David GOFFIN - Kevin ANDERSON - Alexander ZVEREV - Marin CILIC - Novak DJOKOVIC

JTContinental - Gael MONFILS - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Marton FUCSOVICS - Novak DJOKOVIC - Albert RAMOS-VINOLAS - Kei NISHIKORI - John ISNER - Alexander ZVEREV - Juan Martin DEL POTRO - Marco CECCHINATO - Rafael NADAL - Dominic THIEM

Leslie - Pablo CARRENO BUSTA - Karen KHACHANOV - Denis SHAPOVALOV - Damir DZUMHUR - Diego SCHWARTZMAN - David GOFFIN - Maximiliam MARTERER - Alexander ZVEREV - Marin CILIC - Novak DJOKOVIC

motobass - Martin KLIZAN - Karen KHACHANOV - Pierre-Hugues HERBERT - Novak DJOKOVIC - Albert RAMOS-VINOLAS - Kei NISHIKORI - Kevin ANDERSON - Dominic THIEM - Juan Martin DEL POTRO - Alexander ZVEREV

mysterX - Gael MONFILS - Karen KHACHANOV - Marton FUCSOVICS - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Richard GASQUET - Kei NISHIKORI - Kevin ANDERSON - David GOFFIN

naughtyboiosu - Fernando VERDASCO - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Pierre-Hugues HERBERT - Damir DZUMHUR - Albert RAMOS-VINOLAS - Lucas POUILLE - David GOFFIN

Snoo-Foo - Gael MONFILS - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Elias YMER - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Richard GASQUET - Kei NISHIKORI - John ISNER - David GOFFIN

stracciatella - Matteo BERRETTINI - Karen KHACHANOV - Pablo CUEVAS - Damir DZUMHUR - Borna CORIC - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

Togtdyalttai - Gael MONFILS - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Marton FUCSOVICS - Lucas POUILLE - Fabio FOGNINI - Kei NISHIKORI - Maximiliam MARTERER - David GOFFIN

ubermitch - Gael MONFILS - Stefanos TSITSIPAS - Elias YMER - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Borna CORIC - Kei NISHIKORI - David GOFFIN

yoort - Fernando VERDASCO - Richard GASQUET - Denis SHAPOVALOV - Roberto BAUTISTA AGUT - Diego SCHWARTZMAN - Novak DJOKOVIC - Kevin ANDERSON - Alexander ZVEREV - Marin CILIC - Dominic THIEM - Juan Martin DEL POTRO - Rafael NADAL

JTContinental
06-03-2018, 02:32 AM
I thought long and hard before picking Zverev over Khachanov, and I hope I don't regret choosing the other way around.

suliso
06-03-2018, 03:39 AM
I thought long and hard before picking Zverev over Khachanov, and I hope I don't regret choosing the other way around.

Sorry to be negative, but I think your chances of surviving are in a 20% range...

munchin
06-03-2018, 03:55 AM
23 begin the day and we're getting down to the nitty-gritty in the stacked bottom-half of this draw. Goffin is the clear consensus pick, and probably the least worst option, but his opponent can give him trouble (not to stress anyone out).


David GOFFIN 16
Alexander ZVEREV 5
Dominic THIEM 1
Novak DJOKOVIC 1

g2gaynor
06-03-2018, 10:30 AM
down to 7. i might be screwed since novak and cecchinato play in the quarters and i just wasted my novak pick... ugh!!!

munchin
06-03-2018, 10:38 AM
Kaboom.

jazzyg
06-03-2018, 11:06 AM
Just about everyone has been Cecchinato the survivor pool in the last two rounds.

Many of us went down with Carreno Busta. Now the Goffin pickers have joined us.

munchin
06-03-2018, 11:34 AM
Goffin takes out the majority of the pool and we're down to 7!

Irena2
06-03-2018, 04:34 PM
Go Marco CECCHINATO!!!

Irena2
06-04-2018, 08:23 AM
Motobass's pick from the previous day was Dominic Thiem! His current pick is Delpo - he's not red yet!

motobass
06-04-2018, 09:10 AM
Hi - my pick was Del Potro (and not Goffin)! Thanks in advance.

munchin
06-04-2018, 09:18 AM
Hi - my pick was Del Potro (and not Goffin)! Thanks in advance.

My apologies - I pasted that onto the wrong line. You've been resuscitated!

munchin
06-04-2018, 09:25 AM
Seven started the final push toward victory, but one Anderson picker has not survived the day so far.

Marin CILIC 3
Juan Martin DEL POTRO 2
Diego SCHWARTZMAN 1
Kevin ANDERSON 1

motobass
06-04-2018, 05:40 PM
Okay! Now to try to walk that thin rope across the chasm - Cecchinato.

JTContinental
06-04-2018, 08:25 PM
Okay! Now to try to walk that thin rope across the chasm - Cecchinato.

Yes, if I want to have any chance of beating the draw, I have to have to pick Cecchinato to win and Thiem needs to beat Zverev tomorrow. I'm not real high on my chances of that first one.

Drop-shot
06-05-2018, 07:45 AM
Yes, if I want to have any chance of beating the draw, I have to have to pick Cecchinato to win and Thiem needs to beat Zverev tomorrow. I'm not real high on my chances of that first one.

Don't look now, but your reverse-jinx is full steam.

ptmcmahon
06-05-2018, 08:39 AM
:lipsrsealed:

I'm not saying a word either way! :)

ptmcmahon
06-05-2018, 08:47 AM
But I will add counts since I don't see them yet. Looks like motobass should've tried walking the thin rope...changing to Zverev has eliminated him.

3 - Djokovic
1 - Cecchinato
1 - Zverev
1 - Thiem

We're down to 2 or 4, with Novak down two sets right now.

munchin
06-05-2018, 10:31 AM
Updated official count - There were some Cecchinato cold feet, unfortunately, but understandably, leaving us with our final two!

Novak DJOKOVIC 3
Marco CECCHINATO 1
Dominic THIEM 1
Alexander ZVEREV 1

yoort
06-05-2018, 10:44 AM
Reaching day 11 in both pools and still no guaranteed win. What a tournament this has been.

ptmcmahon
06-05-2018, 11:26 AM
For fun, I checked who each of them have left:

JT: Thiem, Nadal, Schwartzman, Cilic
yoort: Cecchianto, Nadal, Schwartzman, Del Potro

If both save Nadal (or Diego!!!) then tomorrow's Cilic-Del Potro match should decide our winner.

suliso
06-05-2018, 12:27 PM
JT has a huge advantage here. If he goes for a medal his chances are about 70-80%.

Edit: actually I can be more precise than that. Playing conservatively the chance of a medal is 72.5%, by being adventurous 50%.

ptmcmahon
06-05-2018, 12:39 PM
The odds currently have Del Potro as the favorite in that match, so I don't know if it's 70-80%. Definitely could wind up going either way I think.

suliso
06-05-2018, 12:41 PM
The odds currently have Del Potro as the favorite in that match, so I don't know if it's 70-80%. Definitely could wind up going either way I think.

If del Potro is indeed a favourite then JT's chances are even higher than that.

suliso
06-05-2018, 12:41 PM
The odds currently have Del Potro as the favorite in that match, so I don't know if it's 70-80%. Definitely could wind up going either way I think.

The safer option is to play Nadal anyway

ptmcmahon
06-05-2018, 12:49 PM
If del Potro is indeed a favourite then JT's chances are even higher than that.

But...JT already used del Potro...or do you mean Del Potro being the favourite will make him more likely to lose? :D

I'm guessing neither goes with Nadal tomorrow, but ya never know.

suliso
06-05-2018, 01:01 PM
I'm guessing neither goes with Nadal tomorrow, but ya never know.

I would certainly do that if I was in JT's position. The only way to lose then would be if Nadal loses to Schwartzman/del Potro or Cecchinato beats Thiem. I'd like those odds better than Cilic beating del Potro.

suliso
06-05-2018, 01:23 PM
I was wondering now what's yoort's mathematically optimal strategy. In fact it's also taking Nadal!!! If JT takes Cilic and wins it still comes down to Cecchinato beating Thiem. Not very likely, but better than dead already. If JT also takes Nadal it yet again comes down to the same outcome in the other SF. If JT takes Cilic and loses then it doesn't matter whether yoort had Nadal or del Potro. Of course unless Cilic wins and Nadal loses, but I think likelihood of that is only ca 2.5%.

jazzyg
06-05-2018, 01:49 PM
Unless del Potro gets hurt, no way is he losing to Cilic.

Cilic would have lost to Fognini if Fognini had not decided he had an injury in the first two sets.

ptmcmahon
06-05-2018, 01:55 PM
I would certainly do that if I was in JT's position. The only way to lose then would be if Nadal loses to Schwartzman/del Potro or Cecchinato beats Thiem. I'd like those odds better than Cilic beating del Potro.

Oh of course, was forgetting about that pick. Yes, seems that would be the way to go, but of course...I think most of us out in the SP are from Cecchinato so who knows!

ptmcmahon
06-05-2018, 01:56 PM
I was wondering now what's yoort's mathematically optimal strategy. In fact it's also taking Nadal!!! If JT takes Cilic and wins it still comes down to Cecchinato beating Thiem. Not very likely, but better than dead already. If JT also takes Nadal it yet again comes down to the same outcome in the other SF. If JT takes Cilic and loses then it doesn't matter whether yoort had Nadal or del Potro. Of course unless Cilic wins and Nadal loses, but I think likelihood of that is only ca 2.5%.

Only best strategy IF JT picks Nadal. Yoort's taken Del Potro FWIW though, so we'll see :)

suliso
06-05-2018, 02:01 PM
Only best strategy IF JT picks Nadal. Yoort's taken Del Potro FWIW though, so we'll see :)

Not true. If JT picks Cilic it's even better, improves yoort's odds of being a sole winner significantly.

JazzNU
06-05-2018, 08:58 PM
I know you guys are enjoying this, but if I was the one of the last remaining two with a chance to finally win a SP crown, I would hate that you've worked out all these scenarios and posted them to possibly help out the competition figure out who is the best person to take.

JTContinental
06-05-2018, 09:16 PM
lol yes, Rafa was going to be my surprise pick, but not much of a surprise now

ptmcmahon
06-05-2018, 10:59 PM
I know you guys are enjoying this, but if I was the one of the last remaining two with a chance to finally win a SP crown, I would hate that you've worked out all these scenarios and posted them to possibly help out the competition figure out who is the best person to take.

Heh, they've been doing just fine, they aren't going to listen to the advice of those of us who lost rounds ago :D

liam_valid
06-06-2018, 08:14 AM
All these comments are a sure fire way to jinx Nadal (and JT)

ptmcmahon
06-06-2018, 04:17 PM
Our jinxing powers aren't that strong.

JazzNU
06-06-2018, 08:08 PM
Our jinxing powers aren't that strong.

Says the guy whose jinxing powers this RG have been downright phenomenal.

ptmcmahon
06-07-2018, 04:49 AM
I won't deny that...But Nadal on clay was too much! Can I take credit for him losing a set to Diego?

ptmcmahon
06-07-2018, 06:06 AM
So looks like both survived.

Jt has Thiem left
yoort has Cecchianto and Nadal left

JT would've been out by taking Cilic, so regardless what happens did make the right decision taking Nadal now. Does yoort dare take Cecchianto tomorrow? :)

yoort
06-07-2018, 06:14 AM
I've seen too many French Opens to rule out a surprise finalist. Thiem better watch out.

ptmcmahon
06-07-2018, 06:19 AM
Sounds like could be in for a fun finish then!

suliso
06-07-2018, 12:16 PM
Does yoort dare take Cecchianto tomorrow? :)

It doesn't matter. Yoort is effectively taking Cecchinato regardless of what he actually writes in the thread.

ptmcmahon
06-07-2018, 01:11 PM
Yeah...but if he takes Cecchianto tomorrow and loses...jt wins the pool.

If he takes Nadal and Nadal wins he either wins solo or ties if Thiem wins. So I say it kind of matters! His current pick is Nadal FWIW.

He does need Cecchianto to win to either win solo, or have chance at beating draw.

suliso
06-07-2018, 01:19 PM
Ah, right. I forgot that JT doesn't have Nadal available. Of course then taking Nadal is the only way to fly.

ptmcmahon
06-07-2018, 02:19 PM
Unless he really really wants to beat the draw, even more than "winning" the SP. I wouldn't go that way but I think there are a few who would.

ptmcmahon
06-08-2018, 08:48 AM
And once again picking Nadal looks like right choice. A set away from co winners, both rewarded for not saving Nadal for their last pick. Smart picking!