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patrick
12-09-2017, 03:36 PM
This contest is closed to new participants. If you participated in the 2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016 or 2017 contest or you SIGNED UP before or on Monday December 25,2017 you are eligible to participate in the 2018 TAT Prediction Contest. If you did not, we regret to inform you that, we are unable to accept new entrants.

However, all other TAT contests are open to any registered member, so we urge you to take part in those events, starting with TAT's "A Month in the Sun" fantasy tennis contest.


The Prediction Contest has three main categories: ATP, WTA and Bonus. The bonus category includes: Davis Cup and Fed Cup as well as predicting the Doubles Winners at the Slams and at the year-end events for the ATP and WTA. At the end of the year, medals will be awarded to the top three finishers in the ATP and WTA categories, one medal will be awarded to the winner of the bonus category, and three medals will be awarded for the top three finishers in the combined ATP, WTA and Bonus scores. You will be able to track your status in each category and in the YTD when the scores are posted each week.


Davis Cup and Fed Cup scores are 1 point each for the R16 winners(Davis Cup only), 2 points each for the winners of the quarterfinal round, 4 points each for the winners of the semifinal round and 8 points for the winner. An additional 1 point each for predicting the correct score of a tie.

When the 2018 Prediction Contest Begins:
The year starts with tournaments from Brisbane, Chennai and Doha for the ATP while the WTA will begin in Auckland, Brisbane and Shenzhen (check corresponding thread for exact deadline)

*For those who are new: the year is divided in weeks. Each week a thread will be posted in this forum with the links to the brackets FOR ALL the tournaments played during that week.

This does not mean that all tournaments' predictions are due at the same time. Each one has its own deadline which will be clarified in the same thread. Make sure to check back regularly as to not miss them.


2018 Prediction Scoring Structure:
-The core scoring structure will remain the same: 1 point for each correct QFist, 2 points for each correct SFist, 3 points for each correct finalist, and 4 points for each correct tournament winner (with points doubled for the four major events). We also predict Davis Cup 1st round, QFs, SFs and final and Fed Cup QFs, SFs, and final.

-Any participant who predicts a tournament perfectly will receive 10 bonus points. These bonus points will be awarded to the bonus category. Points for a perfect tournament will not be doubled for a major event.

-The bonus point for correctly predicting the final score of Davis Cup and Fed Cup ties requires that your prediction must exactly match the final score of the tie. What this means is that you are free to predict final tie scores based on potentially dead rubber matches (2-1, 3-0, 3-1, or 4-0). If you predict 3-2, 4-1, or 5-0 and the final score of the tie is 3-0, for example, or does not match exactly, you will not receive the extra bonus point.


Special Situations:
- Occasionally all R-32 matches may not have been concluded before the deadline. In such situation you will have to post your predictions all the same but will have a dropdown menu in the corresponding slot in the bracket from which to choose the player you think will win the unfinished R-32 match.

- Freebies: this is the opposite situation. Some R-16 matches will have been played before the deadline giving you a FREE quarterfinalist which will not exceed 2 per tournament.

Trip to London Contest
- There will be a total of 13 ATP tournaments that will make up that portion of the contest and the top 8 finishers of those tournaments will participate in a separate contest for medals. All participants, who are not in the top 8 of those tournaments, should continue to make predictions in that week. Tournaments consist of all 4 Slams, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Toronto, Cincinnati, Shanghai and Paris.

Trip to Singapore Contest
- There will be a total of 13 WTA tournaments that will make up that portion of the contest and the top 8 finishers of those tournaments will participate in a separate contest for medals. All participants, who are not in the top 8 of those tournaments, should continue to make predictions in that week. Tournaments consist of all 4 Slams, Doha, Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid, Rome, Montreal, Cincinnati, Wuhan and Beijing.

Again, Hopman Cup will not be included in the schedule.

skatingfan
12-09-2017, 04:55 PM
Is it to late to propose changes?

I think the scoring should reward getting the finalist and winner correct. So increase the points for a correct finalist 4 points, and a correct champion to 8. With the current scoring it's more important to get the QF's and SF's correct than to get the final and the champion correct. If we changed the points for the last two rounds as I suggested than there is the same amount of points available in each round and more of benefit to getting the specific picks at the end of the event.

Also, is there a way to create a reminder that deadlines are coming up. For example, some sort of group message that could bet sent out when the deadline is set. I find that when I check the site I go to the new posts, and read everything that's new and if someone hasn't posted anything in the weekly predictions thread as the deadline approaches than I completely forget to check. I suppose I could just get better at setting myself a deadline to do the picks but I feel like others seem to miss deadlines as well and it discourages involvement as the year goes on because a couple of missed deadlines and your out of contention for the year.

James7
12-11-2017, 08:46 AM
On scoring:
The setup is
1) one point for each correct first pick (R16: 8 total)
2) two points for each correct second pick (QF: 4 picks; 8 total)
3) three points for each correct third pick (SF: 2 picks; 6 total)
4) four points for the correct winner (F: 1 pick; 4 points)

26 possible points per tournament. And over a third of the score is defined by who your finalists/winner are.

Point weighting per pick (rounding):
R16 pick at ~3% of total score each (2 options only each slot [in most,but not all cases])
QF pick at ~8% of total score each (4 options per slot)
SF pick at ~12% of total score each (8 options per slot)
F pick at ~15% of total score (16 possible options)

This is doubled for Majors and YEC. (52 possible at majors).

I don't see the need for a runner-up score as that was already scored once in the prior finalist pick and is defined already by the finalists chosen and winner. If you choose a winner, you've de-facto decided the loser of the match; and double the points of getting the finalist prediction correct. It would skew things away from prior round predictions (that are sometimes the more difficult to correctly predict) toward rewarding finalist predictions disproportionally.

I think the current scheme already rewards the increasing ambiguity of the later round picks with higher scores sufficiently. But we can certainly have that discussion. I just wanted to lay a few things out here.

dave g
12-11-2017, 06:20 PM
I have gone back and for on this issue. Initially, I was with skatingfan, but I am no longer sure. Instead of trying to give an answer, I thought I would give a different perspective. While the scores are usually described in marginal terms (the number of points earned by winning a give round), it might be helpful to look at the scores from a cumulative standpoint. The cumulative points for the different predictions are:
Quarter-finalist: 1
Semi-finalist: 1 + 2 = 3
Finalist: 1 + 2 + 3 = 6
Winner: 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10

Looking at the marginal scores produces the series 1:2:3:4, but looking at the cumulative scores produces the series 1:3:6:10.

My understanding of skatingfan's proposal is that the marginal series should be 1:2:4:8, which would lead to a cumulative series of 1:3:7:15. That seems a little steep to me.

ptmcmahon
01-01-2018, 08:51 AM
Are we doing this week? WTA Brisbane has 1/8th matches tonight for example...

tenedab
01-01-2018, 09:19 AM
Are we doing this week? WTA Brisbane has 1/8th matches tonight for example...
There are 4 second round matches scheduled in Shenzhen as of 10pm Eastern

James7
01-01-2018, 09:51 AM
There was a small hiccup with software. I've got it sorted just a little bit ago.