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Togtdyalttai
04-29-2015, 05:31 PM
http://www.alonsostudio.com/images/famous_thoroughbreds/smarty_jones.jpg
My fellow equestrians,

You are cordially invited to participate in the 2015 edition of TAT's Smarty Jones Stakes!

At the onset of this contest, we will give each participant $10,000 to spend as he or she sees fit. Bets will be placed by players before each of the three triple crown races, as soon as odds are posted. You may bet as little or as much of your money as you wish on each race, betting on as many or as few horses as you like.

A horse selected that wins will pay out in full. A horse that comes in second will pay out half, and a horse that comes in third will pay out a quarter. There will be no exactas or trifectas or any of that silliness.

We look forward to seeing all of you on the tracks, as this contest trots along.

Stay tuned for the specific details, but picks will be due before the start of the race on Saturday, May 2.

If you would like to start scouting your selections, feel free to visit http://www.kentuckyderby.com/




Scoring will work as it should this year, making it so you cannot lose money while a horse of yours still places. For example, betting $1000 a horse with 2/1 odds that comes in second will pay $2000 back.

Togtdyalttai
04-29-2015, 05:39 PM
2015 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds (these odds will be used for betting purposes)

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1
2. Carpe Diem 8/1
3. Materiality 12/1
4. Tencendur 30/1
5. Danzig Moon 30/1
6. Mubtaahij 20/1
7. El Kabeir 30/1
8. Dortmund 3/1
9. Bolo 30/1
10. Firing Line 12/1
11. Stanford 30/1
12. International Star 20/1
13. Itsaknockout 30/1
14. Keen Ice 50/1
15. Frosted 15/1
16. War Story 50/1
17. Mr. Z 50/1
18. American Pharoah 5/2
19. Upstart 15/1
20. Far Right 30/1
21. Frammento 50-1

Kirkus
04-29-2015, 05:51 PM
:yahoo:

Ribbons
04-29-2015, 07:26 PM
$3000 - Carpe Diem
$3000 - Materiality
$3000 - MubTahqhiij
$1000 - American Pharoah

5224 Me and my (honorary) big brother at Keeneland last month. :)

fastbackss
04-30-2015, 07:41 PM
$2500 Dortmund
$2500 American Pharoah
$500 Danzig Moon
$1000 Ocho Ocho Ocho
$500 It's a Knockout

ptmcmahon
05-01-2015, 03:29 AM
$2000 Dortmund
$2000 Upstart
$2000 Firing Line
$2000 Carpe Diem
$1000 Mr. Z
$1000 International Star

TennisAnyone74
05-01-2015, 09:35 AM
Carpe Diem - $2500.00
Materiality - $500.00
Firing Line - $500.00
International Star - $500.00
Itsaknockout - $1000.00
Frosted - $1000.00
War Story - $750.00
American Pharoah - $1250.00
Upstart - $500.00

TA

dryrunguy
05-02-2015, 10:00 AM
I don't see Frammento on the list, not that he's likely to figure in.

BTW, International Star and El Kabeir have been scratched, so folks who have put TAT money on them might want to update.

dryrunguy
05-02-2015, 10:09 AM
This is where I'll start:

Dortmund, $2250
Frosted, $2000
American Pharoah, $1500
Carpe Diem, $1250
Mubtaahij, $1000
Firing Line, $1000
Upstart, $500
Far Right, $500

Togtdyalttai
05-02-2015, 11:55 AM
Bets on El Kabeir and International Star will be returned. Frammento wasn't on the morning line when I looked at it, and I apologize for not adding him until now.

Togtdyalttai
05-02-2015, 12:01 PM
Ocho Ocho Ocho: $2000
Danzig Moon: $2000
Mubtaahij: $2000
Frosted: $2000

waylandboy-tw
05-02-2015, 12:13 PM
2500-Ocho Ocho Ocho

2000-Dortmund

1000-Danzig Moon

Saving the rest for now

Kirkus
05-02-2015, 01:27 PM
Ocho Ocho Ocho $1,000

Carpe Diem $1,000

Dortmund $1,000

Keen Ice $1,000

American Pharoah $1,000

dryrunguy
05-02-2015, 02:36 PM
In case you all haven't seen this.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMsIPmaAILo

gracie
05-02-2015, 03:09 PM
Dontmund 2500
Carpe Diem. 2500
American Pharaoh 1500
Materiality 1500

ptmcmahon
05-02-2015, 05:10 PM
Looks like the best pay off will be for betting firing line.

dryrunguy
05-02-2015, 05:40 PM
Looks like the best pay off will be for betting firing line.

Frosted finishing third instead of fourth would have done me A LOT of good. He missed just by inches.

Very anxious to see what happens 3 weeks from now. Dortmund almost certainly will not be in the Pimlico field. Firing Line ought to like that scenario, as might Upstart. Frosted's connections might want to consider skipping Pimlico and going for Belmont. That distance today might have served him well. Perhaps the same for Far Right as the longer distance and significantly smaller field.

But American Pharoah was monstrously impressive today. This is a few years in a row now where the winner has emerged from just off the pace rather than from a furious closer. And after today, I'm inclined to think that American Pharoah might actually be able to handle the Belmont distance.

Of course, he has to get through the Preakness first. Fascinating stuff.

Togtdyalttai
05-02-2015, 06:34 PM
In the Derby, there were no huge paydays, but some decent sized ones. Runner-up Firing Line paid out 6-1, winner American Pharoah 5-2, and third-placer Dortmund 3-4. That means that our contestant who bet most on Firing Line, ptmcmahon, is in first with $18,500. Dryrunguy, who bet the second most on Firing Line, is in second with $16,375, and fastbackss is in third with $16,125. I am the only contestant who didn't get a return on any of his bets.

See you all at the Preakness! Good luck.

Scoreboard (http://talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/Smarty-Jones-Stakes2015.htm).

Togtdyalttai
05-03-2015, 04:01 PM
The scoreboard has been posted. The link is in the previous post.

Kirkus
05-03-2015, 05:19 PM
Ha! I'm up $250!! :D

Togtdyalttai
05-13-2015, 06:28 PM
2015 Preakness Stakes Morning Line Odds (these odds will be used for betting purposes)

1. American Pharoah 4-5
2. Dortmund 7-2
3. Mr. Z 20-1
4. Danzig Moon 15-1
5. Tale of Verve 30-1
6. Bodhisattva 20-1
7. Divining Rod 12-1
8. Firing Line 4-1

dryrunguy
05-13-2015, 06:40 PM
While I realize American Pharoah and Dortmund have the same trainer but different owners with their own interests, I don't understand the logic of running both of them in this field.... UNLESS Dortmund is running to set a specific pace that will allow American Pharoah to come just off the pace like the Derby and all of his other races. If you're the jockey on Dortmund, how do you take him to or near the front with a shorter distance than the Derby, still make sure he somehow finds a way to lose to American Pharoah, and not get busted on video showing that you forced your horse to lose?

Frosted must be waiting for the Belmont and a longer distance. Boo.

Kirkus
05-13-2015, 09:30 PM
Wow. Only 8 horsies.

Ribbons
05-14-2015, 06:40 AM
$500 Dortmund
$1000 Danzig Moon
$1000 Tale of Verve
$1000 Divining Rod

fastbackss
05-14-2015, 07:30 AM
$6000 American Pharoah
$3500 Dortmund
$1000 Danzig Moon
$1000 Divining Rod
$4500 Firing Line

ptmcmahon
05-14-2015, 07:45 AM
Wow. Only 8 horsies.

Maybe they are ALL waiting for Belmont. That guy last year would be steaming (forget if he was the owner or trainer, the one who did the interview saying it wasn't right for horses to be saved for Belmont.)

dryrunguy
05-14-2015, 07:55 AM
Maybe they are ALL waiting for Belmont. That guy last year would be steaming (forget if he was the owner or trainer, the one who did the interview saying it wasn't right for horses to be saved for Belmont.)

That was Steve Coburn--co-owner of California Chrome. I remember in the Derby prep coverage NBC did a piece on how the two close friend who co-own California Chrome aren't such good friends anymore. Apparently there have been a lot of disputes over where the horse should race and how often.

ptmcmahon
05-16-2015, 04:22 AM
Bump! (This bump is for me as well)

ptmcmahon
05-16-2015, 04:28 AM
While I realize American Pharoah and Dortmund have the same trainer but different owners with their own interests, I don't understand the logic of running both of them in this field.... UNLESS Dortmund is running to set a specific pace that will allow American Pharoah to come just off the pace like the Derby and all of his other races. If you're the jockey on Dortmund, how do you take him to or near the front with a shorter distance than the Derby, still make sure he somehow finds a way to lose to American Pharoah, and not get busted on video showing that you forced your horse to lose?

Frosted must be waiting for the Belmont and a longer distance. Boo.

Looks like Todd Pletcher isn't entering anyone at the Preakness and is saving his horsies for Belmont...could we have a repeat of last year?

ptmcmahon
05-16-2015, 04:44 AM
$4,000 - Mr. Z
$4,000 - Danzig Moon
$3,500 - Dortmund
$3,500 - Divining Rod
$3,500 - Firing Line

dryrunguy
05-16-2015, 08:58 AM
Looks like Todd Pletcher isn't entering anyone at the Preakness and is saving his horsies for Belmont...could we have a repeat of last year?

Wasn't the situation last year that the Belmont-winning horse did not race in either the Derby or the Preakness? That would always be a risk because the Belmont is so much longer in distance than the other two. So whether it's Pletcher or someone else, any horse who specializes in that distance is going to be a serious threat. There are good reasons why we haven't had a Triple Crown winner since 1978.

dryrunguy
05-16-2015, 09:46 AM
I'll start with this. Now I have to cross my fingers and hope ptmcmahon is dead wrong about Mr. Z and Danzig Moon. :evil:

Firing Line, $4500
Divining Rod, $5000
Dortmund, $4000
Danzig Moon, $1500
Mr. Z, $500
Tale of Verve, $500
Bodhisattva, $375

Kirkus
05-16-2015, 10:07 AM
American Pharoah: $1500

Dortmund: $1500

Divining Rod: $2250

Firing Line: $1500

ptmcmahon
05-16-2015, 12:17 PM
I'll start with this. Now I have to cross my fingers and hope ptmcmahon is dead wrong about Mr. Z and Danzig Moon. :evil:

Dortumund's my actual pick...but he ain't paying great in this contest so I have to ... diversify and hope to hit the big payoff again!

Togtdyalttai
05-16-2015, 12:44 PM
$2000 on Bodhisattva!

TennisAnyone74
05-16-2015, 12:54 PM
American Pharaoh - $1250.00
Danzig Moon - $2500.00
Tale of Verve - $1000.00
Divining Rod - $1250.00
Firing Line - $2500.00

TA

gracie
05-16-2015, 02:54 PM
Dontmund 4000
American Pharaoh 2500
Diving Rod 2500
Firing Line 1500

dryrunguy
05-16-2015, 03:13 PM
It is POURING rain.

dryrunguy
05-16-2015, 03:35 PM
SPOILER:























1. American Pharoah
2. Tale of Verve
3. Divining Rod

Togtdyalttai
05-17-2015, 02:51 PM
After the Preakness, dryrunguy's bet-on-almost-every-horse strategy is paying off and he's now in the lead with $28,000. Ribbons and TennisAnyone74 were the biggest winners of the race though, as they bet the most on Tale of Verve. TA is now in second with $24,625, and Ribbons in third with $20,000. I'm now the only contest knocked out the running after losing all of my money.

See you all at the Belmont in three weeks, and good luck!

Scoreboard (http://talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/Smarty-Jones-Stakes2015.htm)

ptmcmahon
05-17-2015, 07:44 PM
Never heard much about Tale of Verve before the race...figured that it was safe to leave off a couple longshots...guess I should've spread out my bets more.

dryrunguy
05-18-2015, 09:46 AM
Never heard much about Tale of Verve before the race...figured that it was safe to leave off a couple longshots...guess I should've spread out my bets more.

There wasn't much to hear. There wasn't a single race in which he'd run on YouTube. (I'm sure they are there but his name wasn't getting any hits like all the other horses.) And I think this was his first Grade I race?

Togtdyalttai
06-03-2015, 05:36 PM
2015 Belmont Stakes Morning Line Odds (these odds will be used for betting purposes)

1. Mubtaahij 10-1
2. Tale of Verve 15-1
3. Madefromlucky 12-1
4. Frammento 30-1
5. American Pharoah 3-5
6. Frosted 5-1
7. Keen Ice 20-1
8. Materiality 6-1

Ribbons
06-03-2015, 06:11 PM
$10K Frosted
$10K Materiality

Kirkus
06-03-2015, 07:03 PM
Frosted $15,200

fastbackss
06-03-2015, 08:03 PM
Tale of Verve $10000
Keen Ice $925
Frosted $4000

ptmcmahon
06-05-2015, 08:38 PM
Will be just fine if I'm wrong and American Pharaoh wins it. My five year old has been talking smack and asking if I'm picking Dortmund again...which obviously I can't!

Mubtaahij $7000
Madefromlucky $7000

dryrunguy
06-06-2015, 11:56 AM
Well, I am completely at a loss. Let's start with this:

Frosted, $15300
Materiality, $8000
Madefromlucky, $2700
Keen Ice, $2000

TennisAnyone74
06-06-2015, 12:34 PM
Mubtaahij - $2400
Tale of Verve - $5000
American Pharoah - $5000
Frosted - $7500
Materiality - $5000

TA

waylandboy-tw
06-06-2015, 02:53 PM
Everything on Frammento :)

Ribbons
06-06-2015, 03:58 PM
Wow. What a horse!

dryrunguy
06-06-2015, 03:59 PM
1. American Pharoah :yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:
2. Frosted
3. Keen Ice

patrick
06-06-2015, 04:08 PM
37 years since a Triple Crown Winner

dryrunguy
06-06-2015, 04:20 PM
It's on youtube if you missed it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctss9h26IqY

Kirkus
06-06-2015, 04:38 PM
:overhead_clap:

I got a little verklempt.

Ti-Amie
06-06-2015, 04:45 PM
It was a great race.

waylandboy-tw
06-06-2015, 08:28 PM
Wow. What a horse!

I am glad there is finally a triple crown winner after such a long drought. I read that Secretariat's Belmont time would have beaten American Pharoah by 15 lengths!

dryrunguy
06-06-2015, 10:00 PM
Feel compelled to point out that this happened.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/belmont-stakes/helwan-euthanized-after-breakdown-at-belmont-park-1.10515360

Kirkus
06-06-2015, 11:26 PM
Feel compelled to point out that this happened.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/belmont-stakes/helwan-euthanized-after-breakdown-at-belmont-park-1.10515360

Is that the horse from an earlier race today that just kind of trotted away from the other horses towards the outside of the track? If so, we saw that and wondered what was going on.

:(

Ribbons
06-07-2015, 08:03 AM
From Ray Paulick and others on Twitter: Bob Baffert in post-race presser announces he and wife Jill donating $50,000 each to @TBaftercare @CARMAcares @PDJFund @Oldfriendsfarm

dryrunguy
06-07-2015, 09:17 AM
Is that the horse from an earlier race today that just kind of trotted away from the other horses towards the outside of the track? If so, we saw that and wondered what was going on.

:(

It was the fourth race. Not sure if I saw this race or not. If I did, I missed this incident. The talking heads on TV didn't say a word about it, and I'm pretty sure I started watching as soon as coverage started.

A few races later during Race 7 (the Acorn), Shook Up knocked hooves with another horse and pulled up late in the race. The talking heads were all over that, spoke on camera to the track veterinarian who said it was just a laceration and no reason to worry and the ambulance was just a precaution.

Ribbons
06-07-2015, 12:16 PM
Two things I enjoyed hearing about Victor Espinoza:

1. At 43, he's the oldest jockey to complete a Triple Crown ride.

2. He's donating all his Belmont winnings to a cancer center.

ptmcmahon
06-08-2015, 07:34 AM
So...who won this contest? :)

Togtdyalttai
06-08-2015, 09:14 AM
Final Scores:

dryrunguy: $65,550
Kirkus: $53,200
Ribbons: $35,000
TennisAnyone74: $33,975
fastbackss: $19,550
waylandboy-tw: $0
Togtdyalttai: $0

I'll post a complete scoreboard on Wednesday evening.

ptmcmahon
06-08-2015, 09:22 AM
My zero didn't even register! :)

Kirkus
06-08-2015, 11:03 AM
Final Scores:

dryrunguy: $65,550
Kirkus: $53,200
Ribbons: $35,000
TennisAnyone74: $33,975
fastbackss: $19,550
waylandboy-tw: $0
Togtdyalttai: $0

I'll post a complete scoreboard on Wednesday evening.

Damn you dryrunguy! Damn you!

:D

dryrunguy
06-08-2015, 01:06 PM
Thank you, Keen Ice!

Togtdyalttai
06-10-2015, 03:39 PM
Here's the prettier final scoreboard: http://talkabouttennis.com/contests/ycwj/Smarty-Jones-Stakes2015.htm

Sorry for not including you, ptmcmahon, on the first one. I was having a good deal of trouble getting things to work with the combination of my phone and a Mac when my original documents were created on a PC.

ptmcmahon
05-03-2016, 12:32 PM
We doing this again for 2016?

My son's named Brody so I think we'll be forcing me to pick Brody's Cause!

dryrunguy
05-03-2016, 12:41 PM
I'd be totally game for it, but I can't run it or anything. I'm in proposal hell.

TennisAnyone74
05-06-2016, 02:43 PM
:( :cry:

TA

Ribbons
05-07-2016, 07:39 AM
I'd be totally game for it, but I can't run it or anything. I'm in proposal hell.

Proposal, shmoposal. You just don't want to have to pick a favorite from the four grays. ;)

(Seriously, though, good luck! *waving from my own public health pushing-through-the-weeds*)

dryrunguy
05-07-2016, 10:01 AM
There are some neat and not-so-neat subplots at this year's Derby.

There are four grays in this year's race--probably a record.

Two studs--Uncle Mo and Tapit--have three progeny each in the race. Uncle Mo is the sire of the favorite, Nyquist, and Tapit is the sire of three of the four grays.

One of Tapit's sons, Lani, is Kentucky bred, based in Japan, and won the UAE Derby. But there's quite a bit of chatter about this horse's behavior. Apparently he is so high-strung that there are widespread concern he's a danger to himself, his jockey, his handlers, other horses, and the public at large. That's not good. Now watch. He'll probably be as gentle as a kitten today.

fastbackss
05-07-2016, 10:17 AM
What is Lani's post? Will he be loaded early? Takes forever at the Derby.

I am rooting for Nyquist, given my Detroit area residence :-)

dryrunguy
05-07-2016, 10:44 AM
What is Lani's post? Will he be loaded early? Takes forever at the Derby.

I am rooting for Nyquist, given my Detroit area residence :-)

Lani is at post position #8. But it doesn't really matter so much for him as he is a closer. Came from dead last and far back to win the UAE Derby. But that's more difficult to do when there are 19 other horses to run around.

I have no idea what their strategy will be, or should be, when it comes to loading him in the gate. Load him first and make him wait while 19 other horses load? Doesn't seem like such a good idea. Load him last and make everyone else while it takes 3 minutes to get him in kicking and screaming? Doesn't seem like such a good idea, either.

I love the Nyquist story. That's also a fun subplot in this year's field.

dryrunguy
05-07-2016, 11:04 AM
You can see a little of Lani's behavior here. He also broke badly, but went on to show some guts in the stretch.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6LEUszj6aw

Togtdyalttai
05-07-2016, 12:19 PM
I'm sorry, I didn't get to setting this contest up until it was too late.

waylandboy-tw
05-07-2016, 12:31 PM
Even though we're not doing it, I'm throwing all my pretend $ on Gun Runner

dryrunguy
05-07-2016, 12:56 PM
The problem with the Derby hasn't changed... The field is too big. Way too big. You can have a supremely talented horse, but traffic in your trip can kill your chances. I just hate that.

But I've already decided I am rooting for Creator. What he did to close the gap at the Arkansas Derby after being dead last for the first 2/3 of the race was astounding. My favorite part is when the announcer basically pronounces Creator's chance to win dead and then a few seconds later has to correct himself. It's awesome.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIsx2lGYs_c

Ribbons
05-07-2016, 01:01 PM
I'm sorry, I didn't get to setting this contest up until it was too late.

No apologies needed, Tog. Like pretty much everyone else at the actual Derby, I'm here for the boozin' and kibbitzin' more than the betting anyway.:beer:

dryrunguy
05-07-2016, 01:05 PM
And you can't count out Whitmore, a long-shot in the odds, but Victor Espinoza will be aboard, and Espinoza is looking to make it three Derby wins in a row--no one has ever done that. And Whitmore arguably has a fascinating pedigree. It's actually pretty rare for Affirmed to show up in a pedigree at this level, but when it does, it's always through one of his daughters.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/whitmore2

dryrunguy
05-07-2016, 01:15 PM
Here's a piece about Tapit--sire of Mohaymen, Creator, and Lani. If nothing else, look at the pic of Tapit. He's a gorgeous horse.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/sports/horse-racing/kentucky-derby-gets-a-silver-sheen.html

dryrunguy
05-07-2016, 03:25 PM
BTW, this happened during the Woodford Reserve Turf race, the last race before the Derby. Both horses and jockeys are okay. I am amazed this doesn't happen more often.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIKYzbjgLoo

dryrunguy
05-07-2016, 04:01 PM
The top four betting favorites finished 1, 2, 3, and 4 in order:

1. Nyquist
2. Exaggerator
3. Gun Runner
4. Mohaymen

Exaggerator was the only late closer who materialized.

Ribbons
05-07-2016, 04:12 PM
When a friend asked what to bet, I told him Nyquist - Outwork - Gun Runner exacta. I was looking like a genius for maybe a quarter-second after the last turn. :rolleyes:

dryrunguy
05-07-2016, 04:46 PM
You can watch the race at this link.

http://www.si.com/horse-racing/2016/05/07/2016-kentucky-derby-winner-results-nyquist

ptmcmahon
05-05-2018, 04:25 AM
Derby night! I always forget about this contest until the last second. We must revive it one of these years!

Kirkus
05-05-2018, 06:46 AM
Yeah, the last couple years we've missed doing it. :(

ptmcmahon
05-05-2018, 07:55 AM
I have to remember this before race day so we can get a volunteer to set it up (not that there's much to setup really.)

Ti-Amie
05-05-2018, 04:45 PM
Just getting in. Who won? How was the race? The track looked so muddy.

dryrunguy
05-05-2018, 05:17 PM
Just getting in. Who won? How was the race? The track looked so muddy.

The favorite, Justify, Bob Baffert-trained, won. It marks the sixth year in a row that the favorite has won the Derby. Good Magic was second, and Audible was third. (Second and third was a photo finish.) Long-shot Instilled Regard, finished fourth. Mendelssohn, the highly touted European entry who won the UAB Derby by 18 1/2 lengths, finished dead last.

BTW, Instilled Regard was ridden by first-time Derby jockey, Drayden Van Dyke. Van Dyke has said he was mentored by winning jockey, Mike Smith (only Smith's second Derby win at age 52).


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jSWMme12ik

dryrunguy
05-05-2018, 05:29 PM
BTW, more than 3 inches of rain fell in the hours leading up to the Derby, making it the wettest Derby in history.

dryrunguy
05-05-2018, 05:36 PM
Oh, one other thing. Justify clearly has the goods to win the Triple Crown. No doubt. But fast-closing Instilled Regard, who finished fourth, could be a spoiler in the longer-distance Belmont. But Justify is the real deal.

Check out Justify's pedigree here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/justify10. He was one of a few sons of Scat Daddy in the field.

ptmcmahon
05-05-2018, 08:52 PM
2 of the 4 kids picked Justify (one before even seeing the odds and horses.) The funny part was how sore my four year old...her horse was second for a bit, and we thought might have still been in top three for a bit...before he fell to 12th. She told me how not fun horse racing was after :)

dryrunguy
05-06-2018, 01:03 PM
BTW, in the coverage leading up to the Derby, they did a segment on American Pharoah. They reported that he is fetching a stud fee of $100,000 a pop. His barn is equipped with an observation deck where you can watch him in action. And unlike many Thoroughbred studs, American Pharoah doesn't require any, um, human assistance to get it done.

Ti-Amie
05-06-2018, 01:05 PM
Thank you for that bit of information dry. :cheesy:

dryrunguy
05-06-2018, 01:11 PM
Thank you for that bit of information dry. :cheesy:

You are quite welcome, Amie. I know there's no way you could have made it through this day without knowing that. :)

In other news, Justify is confirmed for the Preakness, a good number of horses in the Derby will skip it, but several closers from the Derby will likely take another stab for the Belmont given the longer distance and smaller field.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horse-racing/bs-sp-justify-preakness-0506-story.html

ptmcmahon
05-06-2018, 08:39 PM
As seems to be the case every year now. Except for the Derby winner, seems almost no one cares about Preakness anymore.

As for American Pharoah - would I be correct in guessing that's the highest stud fee we've ever seen?

dryrunguy
05-19-2018, 04:14 PM
Justify won the Preakness by 1/2 a length, barely holding off a fast-closing Bravazo and Tenfold. Good Magic tried to duel it out with Justify throughout the race, but got chased down at the last second by Bravazo and Tenfold to finish fourth. Tenfold did not race in the Derby.

Justify will have a difficult time winning the Belmont unless he runs a better race than he did today. He would not have won today had the race been 10 feet longer in distance. That's how fast Bravazo was closing.

BTW, the fog in Baltimore was incredibly dense. There were times when you could barely see the horses. The track announcer had to call the race using TV monitors and his commentary was littered with filler material because he couldn't really see anything. I'll try to find video later.

dryrunguy
05-19-2018, 05:53 PM
Here's the video of the race.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ji_4dH_FXzw

JazzNU
05-19-2018, 09:57 PM
It was an amazing race. Darn shame about the fog, think an exciting race like this with that kind of ending is the type of thing that could get people more interested in the Preakness and not just stuck on watching only the Derby.

I was all in on Bravazo and he did not disappoint, and Tenfold was rather amazing since he's a very inexperienced horse that has a trainer/jockey duo that was running great at Pimlico. I don't see Justify capturing the Triple Crown since he barely won here, but we'll see. I'd guess the field at Belmont will be a decent one, this is not going to scare off potential contenders up for the longer race looking to take the sizable purse.

Ti-Amie
05-20-2018, 10:54 AM
I don't see Justify taking the Triple Crown either. He likes the mud and barely held on at the end. With more weight (do they still do this?) and a longer distance He might not even be in the top three at the end.

JazzNU
05-20-2018, 02:15 PM
Well given last week and this one in the Mid-Atlantic, I'd think the sky might run out of rain by the time Belmont rolls around, so I don't think Justify can necessarily count on another muddy track.

dryrunguy
06-09-2018, 04:51 PM
Justify succeeded in winning the Triple Crown today--and did it in solid fashion. He is only the second horse to do it since Affirmed in 1978 and only the 13th horse to do it in the history of the Triple Crown.

I'll post video when it is available.

EDIT: Also, at 52, Mike Smith is the oldest jockey to win a Triple Crown (he's already in the Hall of Fame but had never won the Triple Crown), and trainer Bob Baffert is only the second trainer in history to train two Triple Crown winners.

texasniteowl
06-09-2018, 05:42 PM
You have to give props to any horse that can win the Belmont leading wire to wire.

dryrunguy
06-09-2018, 06:05 PM
Here y'all go.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4pkD78oKSo

Ti-Amie
06-09-2018, 09:18 PM
What a run. For the horse to take the early lead and run away with it even with the extra weight was something to see.

dryrunguy
06-09-2018, 10:15 PM
FUN FACT: We've now had two Triple Crown winners in the past 4 years--American Pharoah and Justify. The most recent common ancestor for both is Storm Cat (great grandsire for American Pharoah, great-great grandsire for Justify). Storm Cat was sired by a son of Northern Dancer and out of a daughter of Secretariat. If you get a chance, read up on Storm Cat's wiki. It's an interesting read (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Cat).

Kirkus
06-10-2018, 10:58 AM
It was truly impressive going wire to wire. But I was also way impressed by Gronkowski. He had a terrible break to start the race and at one point was 5 or 6 lengths behind the pack. Yet he managed to pass them all for a 2nd place finish. You have to wonder what might have happened had he had a better start.

dryrunguy
06-10-2018, 11:05 AM
It was truly impressive going wire to wire. But I was also way impressed by Gronkowski. He had a terrible break to start the race and at one point was 5 or 6 lengths behind the pack. Yet he managed to pass them all for a 2nd place finish. You have to wonder what might have happened had he had a better start.

Back in the old days, a fast closer like Gronkowski was precisely the type of horse that usually won the Belmont.

I have no idea what Bravazo's team was thinking. He nearly won the Preakness but apparently had nothing left for the Belmont. BTW, Bravazo and Justify were the only two horses in the field that ran in all three Triple Crown races.

Ti-Amie
06-10-2018, 02:21 PM
I don't think any other horse was beating Justify. Did you notice that after the race ended he ran full tilt for quite awhile despite Smith trying to hold him back? That was the most amazing thing about the race to me.

ptmcmahon
06-10-2018, 07:46 PM
Exactly...not often you see a horse with that much gas left in the tank like that after leading the whole time. Very impressive. I wasn't sure if seeing a Triple Crown winner again would be as exciting but it was!

JazzNU
06-11-2018, 03:14 AM
It was truly impressive going wire to wire. But I was also way impressed by Gronkowski. He had a terrible break to start the race and at one point was 5 or 6 lengths behind the pack. Yet he managed to pass them all for a 2nd place finish. You have to wonder what might have happened had he had a better start.

I think Gronkowski would've won it (very hard to say that, can't stand real Gronk). We've seen a lot of horses win the first two and lose Belmont, and really think this would've followed that. Not only did Gronkowski get a terrible start, he seemed to stutter slightly and not recover fully almost in consideration of just stopping because of having such a bad start. So much time wasted that would've resulted in a win if just a little bit of a better start, not even a great one, a semi-slow one is suggestive of him winning this Belmont.

This Belmont was exciting because history was being made, but the Preakness was the most exciting of the races for me this year, and it's not close. Wire to wire is impressive of course, but I remain most impressed that he held off the challengers on that muddy track at Pimlico.

fastbackss
06-11-2018, 07:13 AM
Was an entertaining race.

Clearly the plan was to get Justify out front (which made sense, but tough on the long Belmont race).

It was not lost on me that the other Baffert horse (Restoring Hope) sure made things "wide" entering Turn 1. That allowed Smith to control the pace from the point. That was the other thing that I wondered...namely if that hadn't happened would another horse had gotten him.

Gronkowski truly came out of nowhere (kind of like real life). In fact, when the announcer said the result I was a bit stunned, as I didn't realize that was the horse making the charge since he was so far back.

Separate aside - I would like to see a chart over history of trends for both average number of starters in all 3 races plus how many horses run 2 or 3 of the Triple Crown.

My casual fandom makes me think that horse racing purists bristle at the "let's save horses for Preakness or Belmont" the way old timey baseball fans hate that it is either HR or K now...

ptmcmahon
06-11-2018, 07:22 AM
The hard part about watching the race is once the hit the home stretch, they get rid of the order of the horses...is it really that hard to keep it up for the end? Or is it for betting reasons...so as not to show the final unofficial results?

Ti-Amie
06-11-2018, 08:59 AM
The hard part about watching the race is once the hit the home stretch, they get rid of the order of the horses...is it really that hard to keep it up for the end? Or is it for betting reasons...so as not to show the final unofficial results?

This is probably right.

JazzNU
06-11-2018, 10:54 AM
The hard part about watching the race is once the hit the home stretch, they get rid of the order of the horses...is it really that hard to keep it up for the end? Or is it for betting reasons...so as not to show the final unofficial results?

I think it's also for visual reasons. The horses start fanning out more on that final stretch to make their push for the end and the current graphic would block much more of that. They could go to more of a bottom ticker possibly, they could go that route and stress it's unofficial and pull it immediately off the screen at the end of the race to wait for official results. But none of us work for NBC Sports (right?) to suggest that as a possibly to them.

dryrunguy
10-07-2018, 05:45 PM
There were two phenomenal horse races at Keeneland today--the last chances to automatically qualify for the Breeder's Cup races about 1 month from now.

The Dixiana Bourbon race was phenomenal. Photo finish for 1st/2nd.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb8VqAxNUI4

dryrunguy
10-07-2018, 05:47 PM
The Joddmonte Spinster race was also phenomenal for completely different reasons. Check what Blue Prize does down the stretch... Bizarre!

Cannot embed, so here is the link to video.

The winners of today's races automatically earn a spot in their respective Breeder's Cup races.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/kee/2018/10/7/9/juddmonte-spinster-s-g1