PDA

View Full Version : SP stats



Drop-shot
08-30-2013, 09:35 AM
I had meant to post this before but alas, I got delayed. Still, tis better later than never, so here are some results after 4 years of recopilation of SP stats. All averages go from USO 2009 up to Wimbledon 2013 encompassing each slam four times.

Contestants:
ATP Total: 5745 (1464/1227/1523/1531)
WTA Total: 5338 (1359/1149/1420/1410)
Combined: 11083 (2823/2376/2943/2941)

Average Contestants:
ATP: 359.06 (366/306.75/380.75/382.75)
WTA: 333.63 (339.75/287.25/355/352.5)
Combined: 692.69 (707.75/594/735.75/735.25)

The French is our least attended pool. Surprisingly, Wimbledon outdoes NY (barely). Australia falls in between but not that far behind the first two.

Also, the men's pools are always larger.

Drop-shot
08-30-2013, 09:38 AM
Winners:
ATP: 94 (27/12/33/22)
WTA: 50 (7/12/19/12)
Combined: 144 (34/24/52/34)

Average Winners:
ATP: 5.88 (6.75/3/8.25/5.5)
WTA: 3.13 (1.75/3/4.75/3)
Combined: 9 (8.5/6/13/8.5)

-The men's pool is easier to win.
-Wimbledon is the easiest pool to win. (thanks to the draws combining early on)
-Hardest one to win is the women's AO

I'm surprised at the low number in the men's RG pool given that it's been the most predictable one, at least in the later stages.

Drop-shot
08-30-2013, 09:52 AM
No Picks:
ATP: 698 (197/126/189/186)
WTA: 487 (101/123/138/125)
Combined: 1185 (298/249/327/311)

NP Average:
ATP: 43.63 (49.25/31.5/47.25/46.5)
WTA: 30.44 (25.25/30.75/34.5/31.25)
Combined: 74.06 (74.5/62.25/81.75/77.75)

-Women's pools almost always have less NP
-RG is the slam with least NP

We could assume that the more hard core players that don't forget are responsible for the French assistance and the women's pool assistance.

mmmm8
08-30-2013, 09:56 AM
Winners:
ATP: 94 (27/12/33/22)
WTA: 50 (7/12/19/12)
Combined: 144 (34/24/52/34)

Average Winners:
ATP: 5.88 (6.75/3/8.25/5.5)
WTA: 3.13 (1.75/3/4.75/3)
Combined: 9 (8.5/6/13/8.5)

-The men's pool is easier to win.
-Wimbledon is the easiest pool to win. (thanks to the draws combining early on)
-Hardest one to win is the women's AO

I'm surprised at the low number in the men's RG pool given that it's been the most predictable one, at least in the later stages.


Doesn't the 'easiness' of winning also depend on which round is the final round? More winners could just mean it's more difficult to beat the draw/get close to beating it, so the pool ends earlier. I guess that would still mean a higher chance of getting a medal, but not necessarily that the pool is 'easier'

Drop-shot
08-30-2013, 10:16 AM
Doesn't the 'easiness' of winning also depend on which round is the final round? More winners could just mean it's more difficult to beat the draw/get close to beating it, so the pool ends earlier. I guess that would still mean a higher chance of getting a medal, but not necessarily that the pool is 'easier'

I looked into this and here are the results:
Winners who Beat the Draw:
ATP: 77/94 (25/27 - 10/12 - 33/33 - 5/22)
WTA: 16/50 (0/7 - 1/12 - 14/19 - 1/12)

Slams that ended before the final:
ATP: 1 AO (2 won); 2 RG (2 won); no Wimbledon; 1 USO (16 won)
WTA: 3 AO (6 won); 3 RG (11 won); 1 Wimby (5 won); 2 USO (4 won)

So taking into account that Wimbledon is where we have the least incomplete runs and most winners on both sides I think it's the extra picking.
RG and the AO OTOH, are the ones which have ended early the most; and it really doesn't boost their numbers that much. The exception is the USO (men's side) with 16 winners.

Also, the men's pool tends to run its entire course and its winners are larger than the women's at almost a 2/1 ratio, while the participant difference is 1,076/1

mmmm8
08-30-2013, 10:21 AM
Thanks for doing the extra analysis!

Drop-shot
08-30-2013, 10:29 AM
Different players picked:
ATP: 1092 (278/260/280/274)
WTA: 1150 (293/286/286/285)


Average number of players picked:
ATP: 68.25 (69.5/65/70/68.5)
WTA: 71.88 (73.25/71.5/71.5/71.25)

-Overall, the women's pick is more spread out. The difference is greatest at RG and smallest at Wimbledon.

garp6
08-30-2013, 11:38 AM
Thanks for the stats. I have a few theories on some of the disparities but they're biased by my own experience.

I usually play both pools but I follow men's tennis far more closely. As a result, I have a lot more confidence in my men's picks without doing much research. This has not stopped me from being knocked out twice this year by Donskoy. I think the fact that men's tennis is followed more closely means that there is a little more expertise on our part. Additionally, there appears to be more surface specialty in Men's tennis especially given the importance of the serve. This probably makes it easier to eliminate certain men on certain surfaces. There just seem to be so many male tennis players with high rankings that play off clay only when forced to.

I find RG harder to pick because a whole bunch of clay specialists suddenly become much better and the choices are harder.

Anyway, that's been my experience. I appreciate the numbers.

Thanks

nguyen
08-30-2013, 11:55 AM
I love seeing stats! Thanks for compiling them.

I knew from personal observation that the men's SPs have always had more participants. Makes sense to me since much more people follow men's tennis, although I'm the opposite. I know a Sofia Arvidsson more than a Thiemo de Bakker. Of course, that means nothing in my SP-ing though. :D

Drop-shot
08-30-2013, 01:40 PM
If anyone wants any special stat just ask and I'll post an answer if I have it.

nguyen
08-30-2013, 01:55 PM
If anyone wants any special stat just ask and I'll post an answer if I have it.

Were you also the one who tried to rank the TAT members' results throughout the year in SP pools? I vaguely remember seeing a thread a long time ago but might be completely off base!

Drop-shot
08-30-2013, 02:43 PM
Oh no. That was a different venture long ago. Those who ran it abandoned it since it was very complicated. I do have some rankings about players though :cheesy:

ponchi101
08-30-2013, 02:54 PM
If anyone wants any special stat just ask and I'll post an answer if I have it.

Least successful TAT'er in SP's (who has played the most SP's without winning one).
TAT'er that has lost in the 1st day of the pool the most.
Number one reason why we keep submitting ourselves to this torture...
Most used emoticon used in the LL thread (I really like the one of the little man with the bloody ax and the head covered in a paper bag)

(You said you had them all. Yes you did)

Drop-shot
08-30-2013, 03:33 PM
So there's been a lot of talk about how bloody this R-1 has been, but how does it stack up against the others?
Here it is:

Current Pool:
ATP R-1 loss: 81.23% (76.75% if we don't include NP)
WTA R-1 loss: 56.25% (52.98%)

For the men it's a new record. Previous high mark was 76.19% (71.11%) during R-1 at RG 2010.
If we consider the relative loss (of the remaining players, not the day 1 total) it's still smaller than the 94.84% (87.1%) we lost at this year's Wimbledon during R-3. Since the first number includes NPs, if we only take into account losing picks, RG 2010 gave us a slightly higher loss at 87.5% during its quarterfinals.

For the women the high mark corresponds to the AO 2010 and 2013 when 100% of the remaining pools were eliminated in the final and semis respectively. Since this was the latter stages, that only meant that 1 and 2 people were lost.
If we take into account total participants, the record is in power of RG 2010, when 76.19% (71.11%) was lost during R-1.

nguyen
08-30-2013, 04:36 PM
Oh no. That was a different venture long ago. Those who ran it abandoned it since it was very complicated. I do have some rankings about players though :cheesy:

Ha thanks! I could only imagine how complicated it was. Good to know nonetheless.

gff0
08-30-2013, 09:00 PM
Were you also the one who tried to rank the TAT members ' results throughout the year in SP pools? I vaguely remember seeing a thread a long time ago but might be completely off base!

That was me - then law school started. I have the old data if anyone wants to reright the ship.

nguyen
08-31-2013, 12:16 AM
That was me - then law school started. I have the old data if anyone wants to reright the ship.
Oh was it?! I'm sorry about that. I couldn't recall who started it. Regardless, thanks for the effort. It was fun looking at the data! :D

suliso
09-03-2013, 11:33 AM
Thanks for the analysis, Drop-shot! Do you maybe know how many times where has been a single winner and has it ever happened in both pools at the same slam?

Drop-shot
09-03-2013, 04:42 PM
Thanks for the analysis, Drop-shot! Do you maybe know how many times where has been a single winner and has it ever happened in both pools at the same slam?

That I know:

Don't have to look back too much, it happened at RG this year. Both beat the draw.

Other occasions:
WTA: USO '12 (beat the draw), AO '11, USO '10, AO '10
ATP: RG '11, USO '09
Both: RG '10

Synth
09-03-2013, 05:34 PM
Thanks for the numbers. They're really interesting.



I usually play both pools but I follow men's tennis far more closely. As a result, I have a lot more confidence in my men's picks without doing much research. This has not stopped me from being knocked out twice this year by Donskoy. I think the fact that men's tennis is followed more closely means that there is a little more expertise on our part. Additionally, there appears to be more surface specialty in Men's tennis especially given the importance of the serve. This probably makes it easier to eliminate certain men on certain surfaces. There just seem to be so many male tennis players with high rankings that play off clay only when forced to.

I'm the opposite, I follow women's tennis much more closely than the men's (which I only really watch around slam time) and I almost never watch the early stages of the men's matches. And yet I seem to do much better with the men's SP than the women's SP (which is incredibly frustrating to me). There are just so many unreliable picks on the women's side...

Drop-shot
09-04-2013, 10:25 AM
With the men's pool ending yesterday it is the first time the men conclude so early.

Previous pools that ended before the final:

WTA: Wimbledon '13 (semis), AO '13 (semis), RG '12 (semis), AO '12 (semis), USO '11 (semis), RG '11 (semis), AO '11 (semis), USO '10 (semis), RG '10 (quarters)

ATP: USO '12 (semis), RG '11 (semis), AO '11 (semis), RG '10 (semis)