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beaujarkko
06-28-2010, 05:05 PM
Well, we had a tough day yesterday, didn't we?

Congratulations to the 19 of you who have made our updated thread!

Best of luck to you as you navigate your way through the last three picks.

Here is the list of contenders:

abhilash: Kerber - Zheng - Petrova - Li - Bartoli - Sharapova - Kanepi - V. Williams

bluereggie: Kleybanova - Errani - Petrova - Pavlyuchenkova - Bartoli - Sharapova - Kanepi - Kvitova - Zvonareva

carlitos2006: Flipkens - Hantuchova - Petrova - Radwanska - Bartoli - Sharapova - Kanepi - Clijsters

Earth-dragon: Petrova - Hantuchova - Zvonareva - Li - Bartoli - Radwanska - Kanepi - Clijsters

GlennHarman: Petrova - Hantuchova - Kirilenko - Azarenka - Bartoli - Sharapova - Li - Clijsters

Hummingbird: Flipkens - Zheng - Kirilenko - Li - Bartoli - Radwanska - Kanepi - V. Williams

jbradhunter: Makarova - Rodionova - Kleybanova - Kanepi - Groth - Radwanska - Li - Clijsters

JieOllily0001: Kulikova - Zheng - Petrova - Sharapova - Bartoli - Li - Kanepi - Clijsters

jmcguire: Zvonareva - Kuznetsova - Kirilenko - Azarenka - Bartoli - Radwanska - Li - V. Williams

Kiki D: A. Bondarenko - Rodionova - Petrova - Cibulkova - Bartoli - Sharapova - Li - Kvitova - Pironkova

mu_royals: A. Bondarenko - Hantuchova - Petrova - Azarenka - Bartoli - Radwanska - Kanepi - V. Williams

Naughty T: Kleybanova - Zheng - Petrova - Cibulkova - Bartoli - Sharapova - Li - Kvitova - Zvonareva

nelslus: Flipkens - Hantuchova - Petrova - Radwanska - Bartoli - Sharapova - Li - Clijsters

Omegadoom: Flipkens - Hantuchova - Zvonareva - Sharapova - Bartoli - Radwanska - Kanepi - Clijsters

shojego: A. Bondarenko - Rodionova - Kirilenko - Cibulkova - Bartoli - Sharapova - Zvonareva - Kvitova - Pironkova

sokoll: Zvonareva - Hantuchova - Petrova - Sharapova - Bartoli - Radwanska - Kanepi - Clijsters

TennisAnyone74: A. Bondarenko - Zheng - Petrova - Cibulkova - Bartoli - Sharapova - Kanepi - Clijsters

topsmmash: Kleybanova - Hantuchova - Zvonareva - Kanepi - Bartoli - Radwanska - Li - Clijsters

waylandboy-tw: Flipkens - Hantuchova - Zvonareva - Radwanska - Bartoli - Sharapova - Kanepi - V. Williams


Best of luck to you all!

Scotty
06-28-2010, 05:21 PM
EVERY time I see this thread, I will be thinking ...

"sonofaBartoli!"

Congrats to the SP survivors.

Naughty T
06-28-2010, 06:02 PM
YOWZA ... of course I will cock it up now.

beaujarkko
06-29-2010, 02:25 AM
I don't have all the picks yet (there's still some time) and I am out all day, so this will be updated late late tonight. Sorry!

doubledogbrewer
06-29-2010, 06:02 AM
I don't have all the picks yet (there's still some time) and I am out all day, so this will be updated late late tonight. Sorry!

if both Williams sisters go out (or even one, for that matter) this list is going to get a lot shorter ... go Pironkova and Li! :)

omess
06-29-2010, 07:00 AM
Will Kvitova save the day ???

carlitos2006
06-29-2010, 07:10 AM
Will Kvitova save the day ???

Selfishy I'm rooting for Kanepi now. If we all lose together, we all win together. I want my first (real) medal, dammit.

Moose
06-29-2010, 07:19 AM
If Kvitova gets through, our 4 remaining players are all in decent shape.

All 4 have Serena. All 4 have Pironkova. 3 have Zvonareva. 2 have Li.

James7
06-29-2010, 07:21 AM
Going to reference my post in the other thread here about a "virtual" suicide pool that randomly picks players.

The random pick program selections of Venus and Kim early look like genius now. :rolleyes: Now I'll see if some of them selecting Serena earlier also pays dividends. :p

Planning to run another test later too, to see how adding the logic of "Don't pick high seed matches in the first round" changes things. I'm kind of curious to see if a very simple model can match or even beat SP trends. A sliding probability of picking seeds over rounds can be implemented, but I don't want it to get too fancy or complicated. I'd love to see if blindly picking can improve over "logical" picking. :p

Sorry if I'm being boring here, but this question/problem has captured my attention and I wanted to share my thoughts and results. :lipsrsealed:

mmmm8
06-29-2010, 07:26 AM
Going to reference my post in the other thread here about a "virtual" suicide pool that randomly picks players.

The random pick program selections of Venus and Kim early look like genius now. :rolleyes: Now I'll see if some of them selecting Serena earlier also pays dividends. :p

Planning to run another test later too, to see how adding the logic of "Don't pick high seed matches in the first round" changes things. I'm kind of curious to see if a very simple model can match or even beat SP trends. A sliding probability of picking seeds over rounds can be implemented, but I don't want it to get too fancy or complicated. I'd love to see if blindly picking can improve over "logical" picking. :p

Sorry if I'm being boring here, but this question/problem has captured my attention and I wanted to share my thoughts and results. :lipsrsealed:


No, not boring. It's a very interesting experiment! Thanks for doing it/sharing

carlitos2006
06-29-2010, 09:33 AM
Congratulations Kvitova pickers. Kanepi decided she didn't want to make the semis, or else she decided 15 of us don't deserve SP medals. I've changed my avatar in acknowledgment of this fact.

I should just retire from this game right now. Never gonna happen for me. :(

omess
06-29-2010, 09:43 AM
Will Kvitova save the day ???
And she does save the day for the people who picked her.

Moose
06-29-2010, 09:52 AM
Congratulations Kvitova pickers. Kanepi decided she didn't want to make the semis, or else she decided 15 of us don't deserve SP medals. I've changed my avatar in acknowledgment of this fact.

I should just retire from this game right now. Never gonna happen for me. :(

Ah, Carlitos. I feel bad for you.

But I would also like to take this opportunity to remind you that the 6th annual US Open Suicide Pool will begin in about 7 1/2 weeks. Hope to see you then. :)

James7
06-29-2010, 10:18 AM
No, not boring. It's a very interesting experiment! Thanks for doing it/sharing

Incidentally, I had my previous three surviving random pickers continue. All three survived with oddball picks Kvitova, Zvonereva, and Pironkova, respectively. :p

I generated a new dataset of 500 with the rule "no pick from matches involving a seed 1-9 in round one", but have not had a chance to check it yet.

TennisAnyone74
06-29-2010, 11:47 AM
Every freaking time I make an updated thread, I go out with my very next pick. I cannot win for losing! :mad: I'm tempted to throw Kimmie in the Lake of Fire, but she has a child - besides, she's too nice.

TA

James7
06-29-2010, 11:52 AM
Alright, so I had a few minutes to grade/score the new random selection.

The newer simulation has some mixed results. Initial selection leads to a 50-50 elimination as you would expect early on, but actually appeared to slow the rate of decay later slightly though that could just be a statistical aberration. The main problem seems to be that it managed to do worse than 50-50 early on in this particular dataset, leading to going into these later days with fewer than it could afford to lose. It did produce a "winner" for today, so overall it's still not as successful as more reasoned choices.

starting with a pool of 500 "pickers"
The breakdown: 258 lost on day one. 125 on Day two. 69 on day 3. 19 on day 4. 12 on day 5. 8 on day 6. 4 on day 7.

That left a total of 5 going into today's selection. All but one lost their picks.

The selections of the virtual "winner" were:
MARTIC, Petra CRO
KVITOVA, Petra CZE
PETROVA, Nadia RUS [12]
ZAHLAVOVA STRYCOVA, Barbora CZE
CLIJSTERS, Kim BEL [8]
KANEPI, Kaia EST (Q)
LI, Na CHN [9]
ZVONAREVA, Vera RUS [21]

Of the others, three of the five picked Venus. One picked Kim.

In summary, some higher order logic has to be employed to beat TAT trends. I do have some ideas about how to actually simulate our trends in a relatively simple logic-based manner that doesn't rely on a simple random selection, but rather uses ranking as part of the equation. The challenge, of course, is in doing so without trying to crunch past results of players into the equation (although it feasibly could be done, I'm not interested at this point in trying to do so).

The goal again is to distill relatively good SP results, hopefully somewhat comparable to actual reasoned people on TAT, into it's simplest form. I'll probably work on that a little later off and on, though.

Sorry again for the silly little hobby project of mine. :rolleyes:

dollymix
06-29-2010, 02:13 PM
James7, one approach that might be interesting would be to incorporate every player's ranking and look for large gaps between opponents. One could make a program that when presented with a list of matches would, say, pick randomly from the five matches that have the biggest differential (always picking the higher-ranked player). It would be interesting to see how that approach would fare.

sheron
06-29-2010, 07:56 PM
James7, very interesting experiement! I'd love to hear more about the results.

Have you tried running this on the men's side? (Might have to adjust for the Federer-factor ;-) )

sokoll
06-30-2010, 08:13 AM
beaujarkko, there are 4 people left, as I'm "alive" by mistake. Unfortunately, I have chosen Kim, not Kvitova, so I'm "dead" already. It was very tempting to continue playing :-), but decided to let you know about the mistake

beaujarkko
07-01-2010, 04:52 AM
Two of our remaining four contestants have picked from each side of the bottom half match:

bluereggie and Naughty T have gone for Zvonareva
Kiki D and shojego have chosen Pironkova

Of course this means that this match will determine our Suicide Pool winners (congratulations!) and the other match will determine if anyone can still beat the draw (I prognosticate yes).

This could either be a really exciting day or a really lame one, tennis-wise, so I hope the fortunes go your way.

nelslus
07-01-2010, 05:00 AM
beaujarkko, there are 4 people left, as I'm "alive" by mistake. Unfortunately, I have chosen Kim, not Kvitova, so I'm "dead" already. It was very tempting to continue playing :-), but decided to let you know about the mistake

Please note that nelslus SWEARS that he had chosen Pironkova, and not Kim (belslus changed nelslus' post), and so nelslus wins a medal 'cause he beat the draw prematurely. The HELL with honesty. :cheesy:

Naughty T
07-01-2010, 07:01 AM
WOW... Congrats to Bluereggie and myself I guess... we both have to take Serena if she comes through tomorrow.
gosh.

beaujarkko
07-01-2010, 07:01 AM
Well, it all came down to that match. Congratulations to Naughty T and bluereggie, who are the only ones left! Remember to come back tomorrow to make your official finals pick (I'm guessing there won't be a duplicate pick on that one :))